China is on track to deploy more than 1,000 ballistic missile launchers by 2028 that could be used against Taiwan and nations friendly to it, Middlebury Institute of International Studies researcher Decker Eveleth said in a report early this month, adding that Beijing has plans for at least 507 nuclear-capable launchers within the next five years.
China is also upgrading many of its older short-range missile installations with newer DF-17 missiles that have a range of 1,000km, can carry a nuclear payload and use a hypersonic glide vehicle to avoid missile defenses, it said. With China deploying missiles that can reach Taiwan in under 10 minutes and avoid detection, Taiwan, the US and Japan must employ a deterrence strategy.
Former US national security adviser Robert O’Brien said at a news conference in Taipei on March 24 that the best way to deter China is to show strength. This could be done by extending mandatory military service to one year, strengthening aircraft hangars and bunkers on Taiwan’s west coast and bolstering the resilience of its air force, he said. Arguably an increase in missile deployments in Taiwan and elsewhere could also be a deterrent.
Taiwan and nations friendly to it might be unable to detect and stop Chinese missiles in time, but they could install them where they would be in range of major targets in China, making Beijing aware that any missile launched at Taiwan would be met with swift and measured retaliation. Missiles could be installed on the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島), in Penghu, Kinmen and Lienchiang counties, and on minor islands such as Pengjia Islet (彭佳嶼), Mianhua Islet (棉花嶼) and Huaping Islet (花瓶嶼), among others. Missile systems could also be spread out in Taiwan and installed on many mobile launchers, making them difficult to target and disable. Washington, Tokyo and Seoul could be encouraged to confirm that missile systems installed in Okinawa Prefecture, in South Korea and on nuclear submarines patrolling the South China and East China seas would be used to respond to any missile attack on Taiwan.
An opinion piece published in the Taipei Times on June 16 titled “No mercy in possible Taiwan war” cited former Water Resources Agency section chief Chang Yen-ming (張炎銘) as saying that, in war time, reservoirs should not be breached, and argued that Taiwan should abandon the idea of breaching China’s Three Gorges Dam. Eveleth’s research paper suggested that targeting some of China’s intercontinental ballistic missile installations could be a challenge for the US, since they are near nuclear facilities.
As China would likely not hesitate to target Taiwan’s dams and nuclear power plants, the nation should not disadvantage itself by not targeting such facilities in China. Whether it would actually attack those facilities is another matter, but Taiwan should leave China second guessing about the matter.
A bill US Senator Marco Rubio introduced in May aims to “harden US facilities in the Indo-Pacific region to help deter a pre-emptive strike against US forces and assets in the region by China ahead of an invasion of Taiwan.” This and other US legislation aimed at bolstering Taiwan’s defenses means that the country could find continued support in Washington for efforts to upgrade its missile systems.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno in April said Japan would deploy the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 surface-to-air missile defense system on Ishigaki and Yonaguni islands in Okinawa Prefecture, directly next to Taiwan in case China attacks. Then on Sunday, Japanese State Minister of Defense Toshiro Ino said Japan would likely come to Taiwan’s aid if China attacked.
Given the concerns Taiwan’s allies have for its defense, the nation should seek more support in upgrading its missile systems, and deploy and aim them at key targets throughout China, to send Beijing a clear message.
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
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