EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell in an opinion piece published in a French newspaper on Sunday stressed Taiwan’s importance to Europe and called on European navies to patrol the Taiwan Strait.
Europe should reject Chinese action against Taiwan “because it would be, in economic terms, extremely serious for us, because Taiwan has a strategic role in the production of the most advanced semiconductors,” he said. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken similarly highlighted the importance of Taiwanese semiconductors in September last year when he said that an attack on Taiwan would devastate the global economy.
Of course, it is not only Taiwan’s semiconductors, but also free passage through the Taiwan Strait itself that would be threatened in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. EU officials have said they would sanction China in the event of such an attack, and China would likely blockade the Strait in response to such sanctions. This would have a devastating effect on global trade, as important shipping lanes in the Indo-Pacific region run through the Taiwan Strait. Regional flights might also be put at risk.
European countries are becoming more aware of the importance of protecting Taiwan’s sovereignty. The UK’s HMS Richmond warship passed through the Taiwan Strait in September 2021, with a British official calling it “a powerful demonstration of the UK’s ... commitment to maritime security in the Indo-Pacific region.”
In July last year, then-joint commander of the French Armed Forces in the Asia-Pacific Rear Admiral Jean-Mathieu Rey told a Tahitian newspaper that France would sail through the Taiwan Strait if deemed necessary. China at the time said that it had “sovereign rights” over all of the Strait, which Rey said was “completely wrong,” as the Taiwan Strait is “an international strait.” In December last year, a German Ministry of Foreign Affairs official said that Berlin would redouble efforts to contest China’s sovereignty claims over the Taiwan Strait and continue to assert its position that it is part of international waters.
That Europe’s concerns about the security of Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait are growing is evident in the large number of delegations that have visited Taiwan in the past few months. Finnish and Swiss delegations arrived in Taipei in February, during which Swiss National Councilor Fabian Molina said that “Authoritarianism and war must not prevail.”
Last month, a delegation led by former Kosovar prime minister Avdullah Hoti, a member of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China Policy, met with President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), and in the same week a delegation led by Czech Chamber of Deputies Speaker Marketa Pekarova Adamova also arrived in Taipei. “As a free, democratic country, we support others who are standing behind the same values,” said Adamova, who made the drip despite concerns that it would anger Beijing.
Taipei should do what it can to foster support for Borrell’s proposal that EU navies regularly transit the Taiwan Strait. Beijing’s attempts to normalize its claims over all of the Taiwan Strait cannot be left unchallenged. The government could aim to facilitate such transits by upgrading port facilities, allowing foreign ships to make port-of-call visits. Transits could also be an opportunity for military exchanges, joint drills or intelligence sharing. Taiwan and the EU have shared interests in keeping the Taiwan Strait open and free.
Taiwan has engaged in discussions with the US and countries in Europe on the issue of trade agreements. Increased trade with other democracies is crucial to Taiwan’s efforts to reduce its dependency on the Chinese market. At the same time, Taipei should explore the possibility of security pacts with friendly countries. Doing so will be increasingly important to global economic security as Beijing threatens free passage in the Taiwan Strait.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion
RSS