The “non-green” alliance, which often talks about “avoiding war and seeking peace,” has recently added two more catchphrases about “defusing the confrontation between the US and China,” and acting as a “bridge of communication between China and the US.”
These propositions are out of tune with the state of US-China relations, because Beijing and Washington are well aware that a structure of conflict has been formed between them.
In the international arena, no country dares talk about “defusing the US-China confrontation” or communicating between them. On the contrary, French President Emmanuel Macron said that France and other countries should avoid getting involved in any conflict between the US and China.
The non-green alliance’s fantasy does not necessarily arise from ignorance of geopolitical dynamics. Rather, it is a deliberate effort to distance Taiwanese from the US and draw closer to China, while supporting a presidential candidate who holds such views in next year’s presidential election.
Last week, the Financial Times reported that the US wants to reschedule a visit to China by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, which was postponed due to an incident involving a Chinese reconnaissance balloon.
However, Beijing said that it is not planning to reschedule the visit until it sees what US President Joe Biden’s administration does with its report on an investigation into the “spy balloon,” the report said.
When Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) visited Russia last month, he expressed strong support for Russian President Vladimir Putin and called for deepening the two countries’ “comprehensive strategic partnership.”
“Changes unseen in a century are evolving,” Xi said, adding that China and Russia would promote this change together.
Last week, Chinese Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu (李尚福) visited Russia and met Putin, who held discussions about cooperation and exchange of information between military departments and joint efforts in the field of military technical cooperation.
Joint exercises between Russia and China have been held in East Asia and Europe, involving land, sea and air forces. This is key to strengthening the high level of strategic trust between Russia and China.
Before visiting Russia, Li rejected US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s proposal to hold a telephone call. Western countries are paying close attention to any clues about Chinese military aid to Russia that might emerge from Li’s trip.
However, as the war between Ukraine and Russia continues, the Biden administration, which must simultaneously cope with China’s provocations in the Taiwan Strait, is taking a calm approach.
Regarding preparations for possible military conflict, it would be a good idea to listen to statements made by US military leaders stationed in the Indo-Pacific region.
US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral John Aquilino said that the current trend is heading in the wrong direction, but the US military is ready to respond to any emergency.
It is very important for the US military to reach Taiwan quickly should the need arise, he said.
If China launches a war against Taiwan, the US military must focus on sinking Chinese ships, US Pacific Air Forces Commander Kenneth Wilsbach said.
He said that this was an important lesson learned from the military action launched by China in response to then-US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August last year.
During this year’s “two sessions” — the simultaneous meetings of China’s National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference — Xi was unusually specific in his criticism when he said: “Western countries headed by the US have contained, encircled and suppressed China in an all-round way, bringing unprecedentedly severe challenges to China’s development.”
Xi used harsh language in response to remarks made by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen when she visited China earlier this month, saying that anyone who thinks that China would compromise or concede on the Taiwan question is fooling themselves.
Xi confirmed that the “wolf-warrior” attitude that Chinese representatives displayed during US-China talks in Alaska and Tianjin comes from him.
Chinese academic Wang Jisi (王緝思) said that he had talked to some policymakers who asked rhetorically how China could improve relations with countries that are trying to contain it. Wang said China has no expectation of improving Sino-US relations.
Since 2018, US-China relations have rapidly declined along with geopolitical trends. Trade, chip, cyber and energy disputes between the two countries are growing worse.
Regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China has pretended to be neutral while secretly supporting Putin and skirting legality in terms of military aid to Russia. These factors have caused US-China relations to deteriorate, and the outlook can only be pessimistic.
The trend of confrontation between the US and China has continued since former US president Donald Trump, while there has been a persistent bipartisan consensus on this issue in the US Congress.
As for China’s attitude toward the US, since Xi was elected president for a third term, and gained complete control of the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, Chinese officials have said: “The US is not qualified to talk down to China.”
Such quotations of Xi, which seem to say “Chinese people will not put up with it,” foretell that even if the US is committed to avoiding conflicts, it would not be able to stop Xi’s pursuit of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”
As a result, China seems to be contorting itself. It has made a U-turn away from its policy of “reform and opening up,” and there is no longer any trace of former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s (鄧小平) policy of “hiding our strength and biding our time.”
The US-China partnership that had existed since the time of former US president Richard Nixon has taken a sharp turn for the worse. In Xi’s era, the conflict between the US and China is being laid out globally. It is fair to say that the die has been cast. Despotism and democracy are on the march almost every day, and the series of visits to Taiwan by politicians from the US and its allies are another aspect of this trend.
To disregard China’s role as a provocateur and to extravagantly talk about “resuming exchanges and communication between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait” could be blamed on Taiwan having been bullied.
Any talk of simultaneously being “close to the US, friendly to Japan and at peace with China” is sheer fantasy. People who talk of “avoiding war and seeking peace,” “defusing the confrontation between the US and China” and acting as a “bridge of communication between China and the US” stand on the same side as China.
On April 9, shortly after visiting Taiwan, US House of Representatives Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Michael McCaul said of former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), who visited China while President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) made transit visits to the US: “With the former president Ma in China right now, China’s going to try to influence this next election and take over the island without a shot fired.”
Have people in Taiwan spotted the same signs that are obvious to McCaul?
Translated by Julian Clegg
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