China’s imposition of a no-fly zone north of Taiwan for 27 minutes tomorrow is expected to affect 33 international flights in the region, Minister of Transportation and Communications Wang Kwo-tsai (王國材) said.
Wang on Wednesday said he spoke with officials at the Japan Civil Aviation Bureau about Beijing’s restriction, which is thought to be related to expected debris from a Chinese satellite launch. Commercial vessels have also been told to avoid the 85-nautical-mile (157km) area north of Taiwan, he said.
The ministry on Wednesday said that Beijing reduced the flight-restriction period from three days to less than 30 minutes following protests from Taiwanese civil aviation officials. It is unlikely that Beijing made such a major change to its plans to respect Taiwan, and much more likely that it had miscalculated the scope of its effect on other countries, which most likely also lodged strong protests. Wang said that the original plans would have affected about 480 international flights over the course of three days. The economic impact would have been extensive, especially given that airline traffic is beginning to return to normal following the COVID-19 pandemic.
That China was able to narrow the window of the debris ocean impact to less than 30 minutes shows that the likely reason for the initial three-day flight restriction was to increase pressure on Taiwan and the US. China conducted three days of military exercises in the Taiwan Strait following a meeting between President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and US House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The day after those drills ended, the US began its largest joint exercises with the Philippines, only a few weeks after the Philippines granted the US access to four new military bases. It can be no coincidence that China suddenly attempted to impose a three-day no-fly zone within the Taipei Flight Information Region after the start of those drills.
The flight restriction was likely a part of Beijing’s “gray zone” warfare strategy against Taiwan, which security analyst William Chung (鍾志東) first warned about in June 2020. China has imposed air and sea restrictions against Taiwan in the past, such as in October 2020 when it prevented a military chartered supply flight operated by Uni Air from flying to the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島) in the South China Sea, saying that “dangerous activities” were being conducted in Hong Kong airspace, which the Pratas Islands fall within.
Retired lieutenant general Chang Yen-ting (張延廷) at the time warned that the government must have a contingency plan should China prevent flights from reaching other Taiwan-controlled islands, such as those in Kinmen and Lienchiang counties. In August last year when then-US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi made a stopover in Taipei, China held drills around Taiwan disrupting air and sea traffic in the area for several days.
Analysts said that China scaled back the recent drills due to the backlash it received from the drills following Pelosi’s Taipei visit. The immediacy with which Beijing reduced its three-day flight restriction to only 27 minutes, likely also following international pressure, demonstrates that Beijing practices caution despite its clamorous rhetoric.
The importance of Taiwanese semiconductors to the global economy, and the importance of Taipei as a hub for travel and trade, means that China is limited in how much pressure it can exert on Taiwan. However, the government must ensure its ability to respond quickly to China by maintaining good communication with friendly nations, and continue efforts to join the International Civil Aviation Organization.
China is unlikely to scale up drills around Taiwan, or to attempt an invasion of Taiwan, in the near future, as it knows that doing so would be detrimental to its own interests. Nevertheless, Taiwan must be ready for every contingency.
As former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) concludes his fourth visit to China since leaving office, Taiwan finds itself once again trapped in a familiar cycle of political theater. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has criticized Ma’s participation in the Straits Forum as “dancing with Beijing,” while the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) defends it as an act of constitutional diplomacy. Both sides miss a crucial point: The real question is not whether Ma’s visit helps or hurts Taiwan — it is why Taiwan lacks a sophisticated, multi-track approach to one of the most complex geopolitical relationships in the world. The disagreement reduces Taiwan’s
Former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) is visiting China, where he is addressed in a few ways, but never as a former president. On Sunday, he attended the Straits Forum in Xiamen, not as a former president of Taiwan, but as a former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman. There, he met with Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Chairman Wang Huning (王滬寧). Presumably, Wang at least would have been aware that Ma had once been president, and yet he did not mention that fact, referring to him only as “Mr Ma Ying-jeou.” Perhaps the apparent oversight was not intended to convey a lack of
A foreign colleague of mine asked me recently, “What is a safe distance from potential People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force’s (PLARF) Taiwan targets?” This article will answer this question and help people living in Taiwan have a deeper understanding of the threat. Why is it important to understand PLA/PLARF targeting strategy? According to RAND analysis, the PLA’s “systems destruction warfare” focuses on crippling an adversary’s operational system by targeting its networks, especially leadership, command and control (C2) nodes, sensors, and information hubs. Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, noted in his 15 May 2025 Sedona Forum keynote speech that, as
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) last week announced that the KMT was launching “Operation Patriot” in response to an unprecedented massive campaign to recall 31 KMT legislators. However, his action has also raised questions and doubts: Are these so-called “patriots” pledging allegiance to the country or to the party? While all KMT-proposed campaigns to recall Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmakers have failed, and a growing number of local KMT chapter personnel have been indicted for allegedly forging petition signatures, media reports said that at least 26 recall motions against KMT legislators have passed the second signature threshold
RSS