A memorandum from US Air Mobility Command Commander General Mike Minihan, leaked on social media on Friday, warns of a US military conflict with China over Taiwan as soon as 2025. His is not the first such warning. Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng (邱國正) told lawmakers in June 2021 that China might attempt an invasion in 2025, and US Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Mike Gilday in October last year said that an invasion might occur as early as next year.
Minihan’s comments, which Agence France-Presse said were confirmed by the Pentagon, present an opening for Taipei to press Washington to step up its defense measures. While nobody wants war, and Minihan said the main goal would be to deter a conflict, the comments from such a high-ranking US military official show that the Pentagon is taking the threat of war in the Taiwan Strait seriously, and that it is preparing for possible US involvement in such a conflict.
On Wednesday, the Taipei Times reported that the US government is appropriating funding to facilitate Taiwan’s participation in its International Military Education & Training (IMET) program. Taiwan’s participation in the program, which aims to bolster regional defense capabilities by providing training and education to military personnel around the world, is mentioned in the Consolidated Appropriations Act 2023.
“IMET has been proven to be an effective means to strengthen the military and international alliances, which are crucial for the US to reach its national security goals,” the American Institute in Taiwan told the Chinese-language Liberty Times (the sister newspaper of the Taipei Times).
If there truly is concern among high-ranking US military personnel about a Chinese attack on Taiwan in the next few years, then Taipei and Washington must expedite such initiatives, as well as Taiwan’s procurement of US weapons.
In October last year, the Nikkei Shimbun reported that the US government was considering producing weapons with Taiwan. Such a move would help facilitate weapons delivery and reduce funding concerns. The Nikkei report said that the plan could be implemented through a technology transfer that would allow some US arms to be manufactured in Taiwan. That is not improbable, given that a previous technology transfer in 2020 allowed Taiwan to maintain its F-16 jets domestically.
The US should seek to help Taiwan improve its military self-reliance — something President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has been touting since she took office — or station a contingent of US troops in the nation. If a deployment is not possible, US naval vessels could make regular ports of call in Taiwan. US lawmakers in 2017 proposed such visits in a version of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act. China might object, but it would hardly have grounds to do so, as it has not allowed visits by the US Navy to Chinese ports over the past several years amid growing tensions between the countries.
There is growing bipartisan support for Taiwan in the US Congress, with several official delegations visiting the nation over the past year. Most notably, then-US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi visited in August last year in defiance of warnings from the Chinese government. On Monday last week, Punchbowl News reported that US House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy is planning to visit Taiwan in the coming months, despite renewed warnings from Beijing. Last week, a committee led by US Representative Mike Gallagher launched a petition calling for the US to formally recognize Taiwan as an independent nation.
Given the US’ support for Taiwan, as well as continued warnings among US military officials and think tanks about an impending Chinese invasion, the Tsai administration should continue to press Washington to ensure Taiwan’s security.
In the past month, two important developments are poised to equip Taiwan with expanded capabilities to play foreign policy offense in an age where Taiwan’s diplomatic space is seriously constricted by a hegemonic Beijing. Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) led a delegation of Taiwan and US companies to the Philippines to promote trilateral economic cooperation between the three countries. Additionally, in the past two weeks, Taiwan has placed chip export controls on South Africa in an escalating standoff over the placing of its diplomatic mission in Pretoria, causing the South Africans to pause and ask for consultations to resolve
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