President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) said in her Double Ten National Day address that “provided there is rationality, equality and mutual respect, we are willing to work with the Beijing authorities to find a mutually agreeable arrangement for upholding peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.” She added that China must not think there is room for compromise in the commitment of Taiwanese to democracy and freedom, or that they would not defend their national sovereignty.
Tsai’s statement came right before the start of the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress on Sunday, with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) expected to secure an unprecedented third term. The party will no doubt harp on how “Taiwan is an inseparable part of China,” laced with the usual threats and intimidation. It has already said in its white paper on Taiwan, released in August, that Beijing “will not renounce the use of force” and will take “all necessary measures” to resolve the “Taiwan problem.”
China’s wish to take over Taiwan to fulfill Xi’s “great Chinese dream” was already apparent in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) military drills and record number of incursions across the median line in the Taiwan Strait this year, which shows that Beijing has already unilaterally changed the cross-strait “status quo.” These actions are getting closer to Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng’s (邱國正) definition of China’s “first strike” to annex Taiwan.
In her speech, Tsai spoke of defense reforms and increasing the national defense budget, and how Taiwan is taking responsibility for its own self-defense.
War-preparedness takes more than words. The government has established the All-out Defense Mobilization Agency to bolster military training capacity and refine reserve training. After years of debate following the regretful policy to end conscription in 2018, Chiu has vowed to make an announcement before the end of this year about military service reform, which most likely would restore conscription and extend mandatory service to one year or more.
Many challenges remain. Taiwan’s declining birth rate has adversely affected military recruitment. The nation has only about 88,000 active-duty ground troops, far behind the PLA’s 1.04 million. A Legislative Yuan report says that the number of new conscripts this year is expected to fall to a 10-year low of 118,000, and the problem would only worsen.
The national defense budget for next year is to increase 14.9 percent to a record NT$586.3 billion (US$18.4 billion), but it would still be far below China’s estimated military spending of more than US$270 billion. Taiwan cannot realistically compete in an arms race.
A survey released by the Mainland Affairs Council showed that 58 percent of Taiwanese believed that a war with China was “very unlikely” or “extremely unlikely,” bringing into question the public’s preparedness for war.
Former chief of the general staff admiral Lee Hsi-ming (李喜明) has urged the Ministry of National Defense to establish civil national land defense units, and tycoon Robert Tsao (曹興誠) has donated money to train 300,000 “black bear warriors.” Both are urging Taiwanese to prepare physically and psychologically to defend their homeland.
Lee also promoted a new Overall Defense Concept that would develop a “porcupine defense strategy,” prioritizing more cost-effective weapons that are harder for the PLA to destroy, instead of conventional weapons such as fighter jets, tanks or warships. These recommendations echo the findings of earlier reports from US officials, and have been borne out by Ukraine’s success in resisting the Russian invasion. Military preparedness is not only useful for repelling an invasion; it could also deter Beijing from starting a war.
Tsai spoke of forging a “resilient nation” based on democratic freedom, economic development, social security and national defense. Taiwan needs to expedite its defense reforms and to have an overall roadmap for national mobilization.
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