US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan infuriated the Chinese government and prompted threats of a military response.
Superficially, China’s military exercises around Taiwan can be seen as retaliatory action directed at Taiwan, but their message is broader, aimed at the major powers in the Indo-Pacific region and the five ASEAN member states — the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei — involved in maritime territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea.
China has said that it would take action to protect its territorial claims.
At the Shangri-La Dialogue in June, Chinese Minister of National Defense General Wei Fenghe (魏鳳和) said that “Taiwan is solely an internal affair of China” in which no country can intervene.
The same applies to 80 percent of China’s claims in the South China Sea, regardless of claims by other littoral countries.
The 55th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting was held in Phnom Penh on Aug. 3 amid significant regional volatility and insecurity. Ministers discussed pressing issues such as the situation in the Taiwan Strait, Russia’s war against Ukraine, Myanmar and the South China Sea.
China’s actions toward Taiwan can cause a domino effect including further aggressions that would threaten regional security and stability. For this reason, ASEAN foreign ministers called for calm in the Taiwan Strait, warning that an increase in international and regional volatility could lead to “miscalculation, serious confrontation, open conflicts and unpredictable consequences among major powers.”
China has carefully followed the Ukraine crisis to see how the West and other countries react. From that understanding, it can forge its own way, targeting Taiwan and the South China Sea. Hence, regional stability and security are volatile because it is difficult to assess what China is planning.
At the Shangri-La Dialogue, Wei said: “If anyone tries to split Taiwan from China, we will not regret paying any price and fight to the end... That path leads only to death.”
This message was mainly targeted at the US and other major countries that, as China says, dare to intervene in Beijing’s claims.
In response, defense ministers of the US, Japan and Australia said that their governments cannot accept China’s threat to “use force to change the status quo.”
US Vice President Kamala Harris’ visit to Asia in August last year can be seen as similar to Pelosi’s visit to Asia this year, in that it showed the commitment of the administration of US President Joe Biden and the “return” of the US to Asia, which China sees as a provocation.
On Aug. 6, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr held talks to boost their countries’ alliance. With this meeting, Marcos hoped that the US and other major powers would redouble their efforts to maintain regional stability and counter China.
If other countries in the region keep silent, China might become more aggressive to protect its claims. Such a development is a big concern for small states, as it would result in a change of status quo in the region.
Emboldened by its increasing capabilities, it is highly possible that China continues putting pressure on any major power or regional country that disagrees with its claims.
China’s latest actions around Taiwan have ramifications for the South China Sea dispute, with other littoral countries likely to find it increasingly difficult to deal with China economically and militarily.
Tran Thi Mong Tuyen is a visiting academic at National Taiwan University and a nonresident fellow at the Pacific Forum.
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