Taiwan has been under constant pressure from Beijing for decades, with increasing intensity since Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) ascension to power in 2013.
Beijing’s coercive attempts to isolate and tie the hands of Taiwan, and to seek to cut off Taiwan’s international participation, can only yield greater resilience and hardened perceptions and sentiments of Taiwanese against Beijing’s tactics.
All efforts to change the political inclination and perspectives of Taiwanese with greater soft power incursions and interference in Taiwan’s social and political affairs will be futile when using overwhelming hard-hitting pressure along with gray-zones tactics.
The escalation in tensions since last week’s visit to Taiwan of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been wisely and strategically responded to by Taipei with a mixture of unyielding commitment to its resolve in remaining faithful to a long-held defense of its rights and unwavering drive to protect democracy and self-determination, as well refining the craft of strategic patience and ambiguity where it holds to the “status quo” and policy.
By remaining calm and patient in its approach, Taipei is wise not to be baited by Beijing to act aggressively in defending the encroachment and the provocations through military drills that are primarily driven to instigate Taiwan to make the missteps of early engagement and forceful postures.
Should that happen and should Taipei make miscalculations in response, this would be seized upon by Beijing as a timely pretext to enter into a calculated game of a greater military counter-moves and aggression while it scrutinizes Taipei’s next moves.
Further acts of forceful defense, or a potential downing of Chinese jets or first strikes by Taipei, would invite a full-blown invasion or blockade, providing Beijing with the necessary moral and sovereign justification for its actions, while it would point to Taiwan as the one that first broke with conventional norms.
China seeks to validate an all-out invasion by painting itstelf as a victim and the one left with no option but to prevent a unilateral move, correct the wrongs, bring peace to the nation and the region, and defend the People’s Republic of China’s ultimate sovereignty.
Taiwan’s waiting game, while strengthening its porcupine strategy and the defense approach of the Overall Defense Concept (ODC) in cultivating the most out of the asymmetric conflict, would further boost the nation’s advantage and capacity to surprise.
In a resource-constrained reality when facing the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) sheer military volume, the ODC provides stability in Taipei’s defense strategy of deterring and avoiding conflicts as a first barrier, and if it fails, to win a war and deny the PLA’s aim of a takeover.
The “no first strike” concept also provides firmer grounds for Taipei in a more prepared and anticipated defensive resilience, and carves a path to defeat early first incursions. It would invite Beijing to assume a risky and unproven posture, and venture into the conflict with early strategic missteps as it loses sustaining morale.
Collins Chong Yew Keat provides analysis and opinion to international media on contemporary global and regional issues. His areas of focus include strategic and security studies, US foreign policy and regional conflict.
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