The brutal, unprovoked and unjustified Russian invasion of Ukraine is having serious repercussions around the world. It is a major breach of a rules-based, liberal international order that was built up after World War II, which brought stability to most — although not all — parts of the world.
The unimaginable suffering that Ukrainians are experiencing — through the bombings of cities such as Mariupol, and the butchering of unarmed civilians by Russian soldiers in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha — is there for the world to see.
However, the world is also witnessing the incredible courage and determination displayed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his people, as well as a very determined and unified Western Europe, US and other like-minded countries, which want to ensure that such violent aggression against a peaceful neighbor does not succeed.
It is understandable that the invasion is causing anxiety in Taiwan, as the country is similarly threatened by an aggressive and totalitarian neighboring country, China, which unjustly sees Taiwan as part of its territory.
History shows very clearly that Taiwan has never been part of the People’s Republic of China, and that Chinese claims from before 1895 — the beginning of the Japanese colonial period in Taiwan — are tenuous at best.
However, Taiwanese can take comfort in a number of facts that are in their favor.
The first is that the determined and courageous resistance by Zelenskiy and his people has slowed down and even stopped the advance of the aggressor. This lesson should be clear to China.
Ukraine’s spirited defense is a shining example for Taiwan, and that is what is driving the discussion in Taiwan right now.
Representative to the US Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) put that very neatly into words in a Washington Post opinion article on March 24.
That spirit of defiance is also driving the reassessment of Taiwan’s arms purchases and indigenous manufacturing, so that the country can better defend itself.
Second, there is an important geostrategic difference. It was relatively easy for Russia to roll its tanks across the 2,000km land border with Ukraine, while Taiwan is separated from China by the 180km wide Taiwan Strait.
The Strait forms a formidable natural barrier that is highly difficult to cross under normal circumstances, let alone during a war, when invading ships can be picked off easily by well-positioned defense batteries along Taiwan’s rocky shores.
A third important point is that the joint reaction from the US, EU and other like-minded countries was much stronger than expected, particularly in the area of economic and financial sanctions.
Until recently, the EU was particularly hesitant to even talk about such sanctions, but they were decided on and implemented with lightning speed.
Having developed those tools, the EU is now much more ready and able to use them.
That should give China pause, as it is extremely dependent on exports. If these are halted, it would have immediate and major effects on its economy.
Then there is the fourth factor, which is much discussed in Taiwan: the willingness of the US to become directly involved in the defense of Taiwan if China invades.
As Ukraine is not a NATO member, the US and other allies stopped short of a direct involvement in the fighting, but did go all-out in providing Ukraine with many of the weapons it needed against invading Russians troops.
While there is no NATO-like treaty alliance with Taiwan, the US’ Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) forms a solid basis not only for arms sales — which have increased significantly in the past few years — but also for a direct role for the US military.
The TRA is clear in this regard. It not only states that the US would ensure that Taiwan has the means to defend itself, but also that it would “maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.”
Thus, if China tried to replicate Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of a peaceful neighbor, and, as the TRA states, there is “any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes” or “any threat to the security or the social or economic system of the people on Taiwan and any danger to the interests of the United States arising therefrom,” the US has ample legal basis to come to Taiwan’s defense.
Gerrit van der Wees is a former Dutch diplomat. From 1980 through 2016 he served as chief editor of the Taiwan Communique. He teaches the history of Taiwan at George Mason University and East Asian issues at George Washington University.
The Executive Yuan recently revised a page of its Web site on ethnic groups in Taiwan, replacing the term “Han” (漢族) with “the rest of the population.” The page, which was updated on March 24, describes the composition of Taiwan’s registered households as indigenous (2.5 percent), foreign origin (1.2 percent) and the rest of the population (96.2 percent). The change was picked up by a social media user and amplified by local media, sparking heated discussion over the weekend. The pan-blue and pro-China camp called it a politically motivated desinicization attempt to obscure the Han Chinese ethnicity of most Taiwanese.
On Wednesday last week, the Rossiyskaya Gazeta published an article by Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) asserting the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) territorial claim over Taiwan effective 1945, predicated upon instruments such as the 1943 Cairo Declaration and the 1945 Potsdam Proclamation. The article further contended that this de jure and de facto status was subsequently reaffirmed by UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 1971. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs promptly issued a statement categorically repudiating these assertions. In addition to the reasons put forward by the ministry, I believe that China’s assertions are open to questions in international
The Legislative Yuan passed an amendment on Friday last week to add four national holidays and make Workers’ Day a national holiday for all sectors — a move referred to as “four plus one.” The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), who used their combined legislative majority to push the bill through its third reading, claim the holidays were chosen based on their inherent significance and social relevance. However, in passing the amendment, they have stuck to the traditional mindset of taking a holiday just for the sake of it, failing to make good use of
As strategic tensions escalate across the vast Indo-Pacific region, Taiwan has emerged as more than a potential flashpoint. It is the fulcrum upon which the credibility of the evolving American-led strategy of integrated deterrence now rests. How the US and regional powers like Japan respond to Taiwan’s defense, and how credible the deterrent against Chinese aggression proves to be, will profoundly shape the Indo-Pacific security architecture for years to come. A successful defense of Taiwan through strengthened deterrence in the Indo-Pacific would enhance the credibility of the US-led alliance system and underpin America’s global preeminence, while a failure of integrated deterrence would
RSS