At the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the media predicted a potential “decapitation strike” from Moscow. An in-depth discussion of the issue seems necessary in Taiwan.
There are many ways of launching a decapitation strike, which seeks to assinate a national leader. Such an approach was often used by the US in its conflicts, and could be a quick move for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) if it attacks Taiwan.
London’s Sunday Times on March 3 published a report headlined: “Volodymyr Zelenskiy survives three assassination attempts in days.” It said that Russia had dispatched not only troops to Ukraine but also the Kremlin-backed paramilitary Wagner Group along with Chechen special forces for decapitation strikes. Luckily, Zelenskiy escaped all three attempts.
Despite Russia’s failure to kill Zelenskiy, Ukraine must remain extremely vigilant.
“Decapitation” is a military term for the use of ballistic and precision-guided missiles to assassinate a national leader or destroy a presidential office, to demoralize and severely weaken an enemy.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has repeatedly held military exercises at its Zhurihe Training Base in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, during which it used a scale replica of the Presidential Office Building in Taipei to simulate a decapitation strike.
Russia has the world’s second-most powerful military, with state-of-the-art satellite systems, advanced weapons and the latest hypersonic missiles. It would not be difficult for Moscow to conduct a decapitation strike against Kyiv through an air raid, as the target and location of the strike are clear and definite.
It has also been reported that Zelenskiy has not left his office since the war’s outbreak late last month.
Take for example the third day of Russia’s invasion on Feb. 26, when it launched missile attacks on Ukrainian military facilities and major cities. Zelenskiy appeared in the plaza in front of the presidential office and filmed himself vowing to defend his country to the death.
It is evident that the Ukrainian presidential office, which holds significant symbolic meaning for Ukrainians, is not the first choice or locked target of Russian attacks. Otherwise, as Russia is capable of firing hundreds of missiles to destroy military bases across Ukraine, it is surely capable of destroying the building where the Ukrainian president works.
Avoiding Zelenskiy’s death or the destruction of the Ukrainian presidential office is the result of international factors external of Russia and internal political pressure. As Russian President Vladimir Putin continues the so-called “special military operation,” his strategy is to use war to force Ukraine to the negotiation table, not eradicate the country.
The purpose of Russia’s supposed decapitation attempts was to hijack Zelenskiy, not assassinate him, but as tension mounts during a continued war, whether Russia attempts other decapitation methods is a possibility.
In Taiwan’s 2020 Han Kuang exercises, the military simulated strikes against PLA and Chinese secret agents targeting the Presidential Office Building and other central government agencies in Taipei’s Boai Special Zone (博愛特區), while training for countermeasures against the CCP’s hijacking of the Taiwanese president. From the situation in the Russia-Ukraine war, the scenario set in the Han Kuang military drill is not impossible.
Yao Chung-yuan is a professor and former deputy director of the Ministry of National Defense’s strategic planning department.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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