The West has responded to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by imposing sanctions on Moscow and providing financial aid, intelligence and weaponry to Kyiv.
However, it has stopped short of dispatching troops.
On the surface, financial sanctions and countermeasures focused on trade might not seem to be a strong deterrent for Russia, but China is watching these events unfold with serious concerns.
The Russian economy is heavily dependent on raw materials. Due to a lack of competitiveness in its industrial and commercial sectors — an important factor in creating global trade value — Russia’s gross national product is much lower than that of China’s.
However, it is another story during wartime. Depriving citizens of brand-name clothing or video games does not impede Russia’s ability to fight, which requires food and fuel to run its steel industry.
Russia is a food-and-oil-producing country. Even if international trade is blocked, causing the value of the ruble to collapse, its military can continue operating to a high degree with the domestic redistribution of materials.
Russia is also able to bypass sanctions by relying on China, since the scale of the Chinese economy is much larger than its own. This is also why the sanctions are not biting as much as they otherwise would have. No wonder the West is frustrated by Beijing’s complicity with Moscow.
What scares China is that its situation is completely different from Russia’s. The Chinese economy, which is highly integrated with global markets, would be devastated by the kind of trade and financial sanctions that the West has imposed on Russia. China is a food-and-oil-importing country, and it would immediately face shortages should international trade be cut off. The size of the Chinese economy is also so large that it can hardly rely on any other economy to overcome the effects of sanctions.
Since food and fuel supplies are stable in Russia, anti-war demonstrations there pose little threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime. Should China face such severe trade and financial sanctions, many factories would close, resulting in massive unemployment. Serious food and fuel shortages following an unemployment crisis could lead to revolts across the country, possibly causing the kind of descent into chaos that accompanied the collapse of Chinese dynasties throughout the China’s history.
More fundamentally, Taiwan’s strategic position is quite different from Ukraine’s. Some “surrenderists” claim that the West would abandon Taiwan if it fails to defend itself, in a repeat of the US giving up on South Vietnam. Such beliefs betray a basic understanding of strategy.
Kuwait was defenseless before Iraq’s invasion in 1990, but just two days after the the country’s fall, the US quickly restored its defenses, leading to the first Gulf War. The US in 2003 again invaded Iraq, resulting in the capture and execution of then-Iraqi president Saddam Hussein.
In terms of Kuwait’s strategic importance, it had the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves and was rescued. In comparison, Taiwan is the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturing country, and its strategic position geographically is too significant to be abandoned.
Still, as the defenseless Kuwait relied primarily on the US, the country was severely damaged by the wars. Thus, Taiwan should enhance its military defenses to deter China’s aggressive ambitions with complete war preparedness.
Tommy Lin is director of Wu Fu Eye Clinic and president of the Formosa Republican Association.
Translated by Eddy Chang
Concerns that the US might abandon Taiwan are often overstated. While US President Donald Trump’s handling of Ukraine raised unease in Taiwan, it is crucial to recognize that Taiwan is not Ukraine. Under Trump, the US views Ukraine largely as a European problem, whereas the Indo-Pacific region remains its primary geopolitical focus. Taipei holds immense strategic value for Washington and is unlikely to be treated as a bargaining chip in US-China relations. Trump’s vision of “making America great again” would be directly undermined by any move to abandon Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric of “America First,” the Trump administration understands the necessity of
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
If you had a vision of the future where China did not dominate the global car industry, you can kiss those dreams goodbye. That is because US President Donald Trump’s promised 25 percent tariff on auto imports takes an ax to the only bits of the emerging electric vehicle (EV) supply chain that are not already dominated by Beijing. The biggest losers when the levies take effect this week would be Japan and South Korea. They account for one-third of the cars imported into the US, and as much as two-thirds of those imported from outside North America. (Mexico and Canada, while
The military is conducting its annual Han Kuang exercises in phases. The minister of national defense recently said that this year’s scenarios would simulate defending the nation against possible actions the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might take in an invasion of Taiwan, making the threat of a speculated Chinese invasion in 2027 a heated agenda item again. That year, also referred to as the “Davidson window,” is named after then-US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Philip Davidson, who in 2021 warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Xi in 2017
RSS