Russia on Feb. 24 launched a wide-scale attack on Ukraine before the eyes of the international community, upending the global geopolitical order. Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan to capture Ukraine within 72 hours, Russian forces have faced fierce resistance from Ukrainian troops and citizens. While Moscow is facing international pressure for its actions, Kyiv has been gaining support.
Even though there are stark differences between Taiwan and Ukraine, both countries have aggressive neighbors with expansionist tendencies. The priority for Taiwan is to keep an eye on the unfolding crisis in Ukraine and formulate countermeasure strategies.
For the invasion of Ukraine, Putin re-enacted the Georgia playbook he used in 2008. In the war with Georgia, Russia first stirred things up in the south Caucasian country, then recognized the independence of two breakaway regions — South Ossetia and Abkhazia — and used this as a pretext for conducting military operations in the country, thereby thwarting NATO expansion to Georgia. In 2014, Moscow followed that playbook, down to almost every single detail, to annex the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine.
However, Putin is up against a bigger and stronger Western alliance this time. Whether Putin achieves his imperial ambitions remains an open question, but Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has received worldwide condemnation, which could lead to Russia’s diplomatic isolation, economic stagnation and technological decline, as well as damage to its reputation.
The crisis has triggered an outpouring of rage from protestors around the world demanding that Putin cease his military action against Ukraine. In Taiwan, people took to the streets of Taipei to voice their sympathy for Ukrainians, while yellow and blue lights — the colors of the Ukrainian flag — lit up Taipei 101 and the Kaohsiung Music Center during the Kaohsiung Lantern Festival in a gesture of support. Donations from Taiwanese to Ukraine have reached more than NT$100 million (US$3.53 million).
In Russia, more than 600 academics, including Nobel laureates, have signed a petition calling for an end to the “immoral, irresponsible and criminal” war. Thousands of Russians in more than 50 cities, including St Petersburg, have participated in anti-war protests.
Major technology firms, such as Twitter, YouTube, Facebook and Google, have joined a boycott of Russia, while SpaceX founder Elon Musk has activated Starlink’s satellite broadband service in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian media’s capture of a series of humiliating and awkward moments for the Russian army — such as tanks breaking down or running out of fuel — are now the subject of ridicule.
As Putin’s best-laid plans seem to be going awry in Ukraine, the Russian authorities are keeping an even tighter lid on local media organizations to protect the Kremlin’s image and paint a largely positive picture of the Russian military’s advances.
Ukrainians have been putting up an admirable resistance to the invaders. Before the invasion, thousands of Ukrainian civilians volunteered to join territorial defense units. In one such example, Valentyna Konstantynovska, a 79-year-old Ukrainian great-grandmother, reportedly signed up for civilian combat training to defend her family and home.
Bravery is on display in Ukraine every day. From a barista, ski coach and attorney to newlyweds, Ukrainian civilians have been taking up arms to fight against the invasion. Unarmed civilians were seen trying to block Russian tanks with nothing more than their own bodies, while a Ukrainian soldier reportedly blew himself up on a bridge to prevent a line of Russian tanks from crossing.
Retired tennis player Sergiy Stakhovsky and Ukrainian parliamentarian Kira Rudik have pledged to defend their country.
By answering Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s call to arms, Ukrainians have demonstrated their iron will to repel Russia. According to a poll, 70 percent of Ukrainians think they will prevail against Russia.
While Putin is busy wreaking havoc in Ukraine, his ally, Chinese President Xi Jinping, (習近平) is not resting either: China has been quietly helping Russia evade Western economic sanctions and engaging in a new wave of “cognitive warfare” against Taiwan. The identity crisis within Taiwan has given China an opportunity to create chaos.
Consequently, there has been a spread of misleading narratives and half-truths in response to the fighting in Ukraine, such as casting blame for the war on Ukraine for its desire to join NATO, or lampooning Zelenskiy — who went from television comedian to national hero — while steering clear of any comments on Russia’s invasion.
Nevertheless, these narratives are amplifying a pro-China and anti-US stance, infused with capitulationism and defeatism. The anti-US narrative is by far the most prominent propaganda line spread by Taiwan’s pan-blue camp. Since Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the US and EU, with their hands tied, could only supply Ukraine with weapons, stopping short of committing troops to avoid an all-out war.
However, the move has been characterized by some in the pan-blue camp as a sign that “US promises are nothing more than hot air.”
When Western powers united to hit Russia with economic sanctions, these voices said that “sanctions would not bring Russia to heel” or “the US’ intervention is like adding fuel to the fire,” or “the US will emerge as the final winner” — while portraying US President Joe Biden, who warned Ukraine of Russia’s invasion beforehand, as “the stock market’s biggest bear.”
These pundits postulated that since the US has proven to be unreliable, Taiwan should not side with Washington in case it gets discarded as a pawn. Narratives such as “no country will come to our aid if war breaks out over Taiwan” or “Taiwan will be sacrificed if the US and China are one day back on good terms again” have been floating around.
They conclude that “small countries should not provoke big countries,” that the government should acknowledge the legitimacy of the so-called “1992 consensus,” and proposed that for Kinmen County not to become a “second Ukraine,” Taiwan should adopt a “Finlandization” model of neutrality in exchange for peace.
What is worse, there are people who regard the Ukrainians who took up arms to protect their homeland as a “foolish act of patriotism, much like the Boxers in the Boxer Rebellion.”
The message behind these ludicrous narratives is to imply that Taiwan cannot side with the US, and should instead dance to Beijing’s tune and become China’s puppet. Inspired by Ukraine’s resilience and heroism, these pro-China narratives, of course, do not sit well with the majority of Taiwanese.
Recently, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, former US president Donald Trump and former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe said that Xi could be taking advantage of the opportunity presented by the Ukraine crisis to seize Taiwan.
In addition to showing gratitude to the leaders of friendly countries for their concern, Taiwan should look at itself and reflect whether Taiwanese could demonstrate the same degree of determination to defend their country as Ukrainians — and whether Taiwan’s political leaders possess the tenacity and sagacity to repel a belligerent neighbor.
Taiwan should bear in mind the Latin adage, Si vis pacem, para bellum — “If you want peace, prepare for war” — and put plans for stepping up military training and preparation into action. Rapacious China might not yet possess the capacity for a full-scale invasion, but the possibility of Beijing deciding to annex one of more of Taiwan’s outlying islands cannot be dismissed.
Ukraine has demonstrated that asymmetric warfare is an effective means to combat a superior attacking force by its utilization of Stinger surface-to-air missiles, Javelin anti-tank missiles and drones.
Learning from Ukraine’s example, Taiwan should devise pragmatic strategies, tactics and military deployments that take into account the nation’s geography.
Above all, Taiwan should reform its conscription system, boost training for its reserve forces, work to elevate the military’s pride and status within society, arm citizens and soldiers with intellectual defenses, and increase the percentage of GDP dedicated to the defense budget.
Only by showing a commitment and determination to enhance its self-defense capabilities can Taiwan stymie China’s aggressive moves, and gain the support and aid of its allies in times of emergency.
Translated by Rita Wang
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