Taiwan’s future is likely to have an outsized impact on not only the United States and People’s Republic of China, but the entire global order. There is no country on Earth today whose future is so uncertain, so contested, and so consequential. Why does Taiwan matter? Because not all foreign policy puzzles are created equal. A power law applies.
When it comes to matters of power, radically unequal distribution is the law of the universe. In Peter Thiel’s book, Zero to One, he describes how the power law works and why it matters to everyone. Thiel uses examples from the venture capital world, pointing out that just a few companies radically outperform all others.
Consider Apple. By January 2022, Apple was worth over US$3 trillion, more than the entire gross domestic product of France. According to the New York Times, Apple’s valuation is more than Walmart, Disney, Netflix, Nike, Exxon Mobil, Coca-Cola, Comcast, Morgan Stanley, McDonald’s, AT&T, Goldman Sachs, Boeing, IBM, and Ford combined. To repeat, Apple is worth more than all of those huge companies added together.
The same extraordinarily stark example of uneven distribution can be found in nature. A small percentage of peapods produce the great majority of peas. The alpha males and alpha females of most animal groups far outstrip all others when it comes to reproductive success. In some bird species, for instance, dominant males will sire 95 percent of offspring, and alpha females account for 99.5 percent.
The history of human civilization shows a similar power law at work. For each generation, certain strategic locations matter more than others, and not just by a little bit, but exponentially more. During the Cold War, the fate of humankind hinged on what happened in Germany. Policymakers could afford to get other areas wrong. No one in Washington or Moscow was prepared to risk a nuclear war over the fate of Vietnam, Grenada, or Afghanistan. But when it came to Germany, the stakes were sky high. Even during the Korean War and Cuba Missile Crisis, leaders on both sides of the Iron Curtain considered how their actions might impact Berlin.
For this generation, Taiwan is the strategic nerve center of the world. If current political and military trends continue, a devastating great power war over Taiwan could occur. Or even worse: Taiwanese democracy might be subverted from within. Such an event would hand the Chinese Communist Party control over the world’s microchips and forfeit military terrain with unparalleled value. It seems reasonable to assume that America’s alliance system would crumble in the wake of a disaster on that scale. No other potential flashpoint is as structurally unstable and dynamic.
Indeed, many experts believe that it is no longer a question of if a frightening Taiwan scenario will occur, but when and which one. Not since the late 1930s has the international system looked so vulnerable. The armies of totalitarianism are not yet on the march, but their guns are loaded and their jackboots are coming on.
It might be tempting to take comfort in the knowledge that defending Taiwan has become the Pentagon’s number one priority. But the US military is not capable of keeping the peace by itself. Lacking nuclear weapons, Taiwan’s armed forces are even less capable. Statecraft is needed.
And this is exactly where Washington struggles the most. Consider the following basic facts: Taiwan is a country. Taiwan is a sovereign, independent nation state. Taiwan is a liberal, open and free democracy where people enjoy popular sovereignty. Taiwan is not part of the People’s Republic of China and never has been. China’s government has no legitimate claim to Taiwan.
You already know all these facts, of course. Almost everyone does. Yet, only a vanishingly small number of governments are willing to officially acknowledge and recognize objective reality. When it comes to Taiwan, around 180 United Nations member states engage in truth denial every day, including the United States. And that number is climbing.
President Joe Biden and President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) should work together to lead a historic effort to bend the arch of history in a brighter direction. This will not be easy. So far, neither the United States nor Taiwan has a national strategy for China, and both governments lack a vision for the future of US-Taiwan relations. Even more worrisome, neither leader knows the other. They don’t even talk on the phone or tweet to each other, let alone meet in-person.
Perhaps Mr. Biden and Dr. Tsai have been told they can avert a future catastrophe simply by buying the “right” kinds of military equipment and improving defense readiness. That is a common fallacy. Ideas like the “Overall Defense Concept” and “Fortress Taiwan” are conceptual frameworks, not strategies. A good military strategy is impossible in the absence of national security policies established on rock-solid intelligence; in other words, the truth. When it comes to Taiwan, national unity is sorely lacking. Moreover, overmilitarized foreign policies are failed foreign policies.
An isolated Taiwan serves the Chinese Communist Party’s interests, not those of the US and other democracies. Diplomacy is the antidote to war. The Taiwan Strait will never be stable until Taiwan is treated like other free countries around the world and placed safely inside a new collective security architecture led by the United States. This cannot — and should not — happen overnight. A carefully considered, step-by-step plan of action is required.
Looking to the future, it should no longer be a question of if the United States and other democracies recognize Taiwan as the supremely important country it actually is, but when and how. Bad politics is the root cause of this generation’s most vexing international puzzle. Good politics is the solution.
Ian Easton is a senior director at the Project 2049 Institute and author of The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia.
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