Sat, Feb 12, 2022 page8

• ‘Fear China’ strategy to backfire

  • By Huynh Tam Sang
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  Beijing’s growing arrogance and coercion toward nations that do not share its viewpoints have made China a feared power rather than a loved power.

  Since overtaking Japan as the world’s second-largest economy in 2010, China has expanded its economic power and martial prowess, utilizing this advantage to buy kowtows from weaker states, notably those in Southeast Asia, such as Cambodia and Laos.

  After accumulating this excessive power, Chinese leaders have become overly satisfied. With the rise of his political authority, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) has sought a stronger role on the global stage, coining the term “Chinese Dream” to forge the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

  Xi further aimed to shape “a new type of international relations” by carving out the so-called “major country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics,” as revealed in his speech at the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 19th National Congress.

  Yet, things changed dramatically, especially after the outbreak of COVID-19 in China’s Wuhan in late 2019, coupled with Beijing using its confrontational brand of “wolf warrior diplomacy” to defend its national interest.

  In the Indo-Pacific region, China has repeatedly conducted aerial incursions into Taiwan’s southwestern air defense identification zone, intervened in Japan’s waters and warned Tokyo over its pledge to defend Taiwan, increased its encroachments on the exclusive economic zones of most Southeast Asian littoral states, economically punished Australia, and engaged in a border dispute with India in the Himalayas.

  Without a doubt, China has failed to translate its economic, military and demographic power into a respected status as a responsible leader. The most common emotion China invokes is “fear,” with countries voicing concerns over Beijing’s ambition and aggression, not to mention that many nations have sought to boost omnidirectional economic relations to lessen their reliance on China.

  However, is China on the wrong track?

  In the 16th century, Italian political theorist Niccolo Machiavelli in his book The Prince proposed the striking principle that a prince, or leader, should strive for love as well as fear.

  However in case he cannot attain both, the leader would be better off being feared than being loved, because men are “ungrateful, fickle, simulators and deceivers, avoiders of danger, and greedy for gain.”

  Essentially, Machiavelli understands fear as a more effective tool, as it can generate motivation better than love can.

  The political philosophy of a cynical commentator such as Machiavelli might have left a strong imprint on the pragmatic philosophy of Chinese leaders, who have adhered to a brand of power politics that considers shrewdness and coldness the prerequisite for diplomatic affairs.

  Chinese leaders, especially Xi, think that being feared is better than being loved.

  As the CCP last year celebrated its 100th founding anniversary, Xi, as the party’s general secretary, vowed to defend China against those trying to bully or oppress it, claiming that Beijing would “crack their heads and spill blood on the great wall of steel built from the flesh and blood of 1.4 billion Chinese people.”

  Xi’s assertive speech signaled that he would not tolerate countries acting in a way that he deemed inappropriate or detrimental to China’s national interests.

  In employing wolf warrior diplomacy, Xi seems unconcerned about China embedding itself in a schism with other nations and alienating itself from trading partners.

  The US and some of its allies, together with Reporters Without Borders and a coalition of 242 organizations, have embraced a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics as a symbolic protest against China’s human rights abuses.

  However, China has stayed firm on its stance, which can be subsumed in the words of Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Wang Wenbin (汪文斌): “No one would care whether they come or not.”

  The CCP has felt no remorse for its atrocities against Uighurs, ethnic cleansing in Tibet and a crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong.

  However, Chinese leaders might be right about the need to maintain their comprehensive leadership and will likely continue to consolidate the legitimacy of the CCP, using an anti-corruption campaign as a powerful and legitimate tool to silence critics.

  Additionally, aggressive diplomacy will likely continue to guide the CCP’s approach toward international affairs as the imperative response to external comments and criticisms.

  Nevertheless, China is practically misguided when it comes to modern diplomacy.

  International relations are not only about competition, but are also based on cooperation, requiring being loved and respected.

  For great powers, earning respect from their peers and less powerful countries can serve as the underlying force for securing love.

  Love and respect can produce, or cement, the sustainability and durability of a relationship.

  Viewed from this perspective, China should be prudent when embracing the love-fear dichotomy in its foreign relations.

  Yet, Chinese leaders might have forgotten Machiavelli’s astute warning: “A prince must avoid being hated and despised at all costs.”

  This message is crucial because being feared does not necessarily generate obedience and loyalty, as countries could turn their fear into political upheaval amid a shaky relationship between the aggressor and the benevolent.

  Moreover, living with uncertainty and nervousness could push smaller countries to form an alliance to counterbalance the aggressor when the threat of coercion or retaliation is laid bare.

  When countries’ security depends on cooperation, especially with likeminded partners, they would reach out to the good, rather than the evil.

  The establishment of the so-called “Quad” — an unofficial alliance between the US, Japan, Australia and India — and AUKUS, a security pact between Australia, the UK and the US, are good examples of efforts to counterbalance China’s rising ambition.

  Even smaller countries adjacent to the South China Sea are set to meet later this month to seek a maritime alliance to respond to China’s encroachment.

  Another instance is the rising international support for Taiwan from major powers, such as the US, Japan, Australia, and central and eastern European countries, despite Beijing warning to take a hard approach and retaliate economically against them.

  No matter how powerful they appear, Chinese leaders have less global support than ever. They are unwilling to change course diplomatically or admit any wrongdoing.

  Authoritarian regimes, such as fascist Italy under Benito Mussolini and Germany under Adolf Hitler collapsed when trying to instill fear in its public and other nations.

  The historical lesson is that fear can produce short-term obedience, but countries need love to win hearts and minds globally. With love, people can even go above and beyond for you.

  Huynh Tam Sang is a lecturer at Ho Chi Minh City University of Social Sciences and Humanities’ faculty of international relations, a research fellow at the Taiwan NextGen Foundation and a nonresident WSD-Handa fellow at the Pacific Forum.
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