In the May 1 issue of the weekly The Economist, Taiwan was the cover story, with the sensational headline “The most dangerous place on Earth.” [One of the issue’s two articles on Taiwan,] which detailed changes in the trilateral relationship between Taiwan, China and the US, caused a stir in Taiwan. Some of the article’s arguments, which focus on China’s growing military strength, make sense, but are not entirely correct.
From the perspective of bilateral interaction alone, it is indisputable that the stronger China’s military is, the greater the threat to Taiwan.
However, cross-strait relations cannot be singled out from the context of international relations. If the possibility of support from other countries were also considered, it could lead to the paradox that the stronger China’s military is, the safer Taiwan would be.
According to the article, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co produces 84 percent of the world’s advanced chips, which are crucial to global industrial development. How can other countries just sit back and ignore the situation in the Taiwan Strait? Apart from the US, even France and Germany, which have seldom intervened in East Asian affairs, have launched their own Indo-Pacific strategies to ensure regional stability.
The article said that US Admiral Phil Davidson, head of the Indo-Pacific Command, in March told the US Congress that he worried about China attacking Taiwan as soon as 2027. This comment is rather self-centered.
It is not news that the US Department of Defense has intentionally exaggerated China’s military capabilities to obtain funds from Congress. For example, in the department’s Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China report published in September last year, it said that China has 350 warships, surpassing the US’ 293, but it did not mention that China’s fleet is still far below the standard of the US in terms of performance or gross tonnage.
The Indo-Pacific Command is the latest department agency to be restructured, and it is not impossible that the commander deliberately exaggerated China’s intention to use force against Taiwan to show some results.
In addition, The Economist article analyzes only the international situation, but ignores that Chinese concerns over the domestic situation are distracting Beijing from focusing on the Taiwan issue in the near future. The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is to be held in October next year. Following precedent, past Chinese presidents have served two terms, and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) should have named a successor as party general secretary at the 19th National Congress and appointed that successor to the Standing Committee of the Central Political Bureau and as vice president.
However, no such arrangements were made, indicating that Xi is likely to stay on, which would inevitably create dissatisfaction among CCP factions. Although Xi might choose to use military force against Taiwan to gain domestic support, the significant gap in military strength between the US and China could cause Xi to have to step down early.
It is sometimes said that the most dangerous place is the safest place. Taiwan and the Taiwanese are perhaps best situated to prove this saying: Amid the global COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan’s performance has been outstanding, and economic growth, and the stock and foreign-exchange markets have reached historical highs. This demonstrates that Taiwanese are full of confidence for the future, and they have no reason to fear alarmist foreign media outlets.
Yang Chung-hsin is a civil servant.
Translated by Lin Lee-kai
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