A world of free-trade agreements (FTA) will open to Taiwan and the nation will enjoy greater international space if it just signs an economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) with China. At least, that’s the pipe dream the government is trying to sell.
Here’s a reality check: The government will only be pursuing FTAs with countries that have already inked FTAs with China.
This is the impression President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) gave when he said, according to a report in the China Times on Jan. 12: “As long as other nations have already signed FTAs with the mainland, Beijing will have no objections if these countries wish to discuss similar deals with Taiwan.”
China’s acceptance is apparently key — this is not the same as allowing Taiwan more international space. On the contrary, it seems to reduce Taiwan to a province of China.
Thus, this policy fits well with the grand strategy of unification. The time is simply not ripe yet for unification, the KMT says. Nevertheless the government seems to be headed unfalteringly in this direction and hoping that time is on its side.
The consequences of a China-leaning FTA policy will not only hurt Taiwan’s sovereignty, but also its economic development. International experience shows that the most effective economic integration is done between countries at an equal development stage. An FTA between Taiwan and the EU, for example, would benefit both parties.
Taiwan would be able to improve its already competitive services in the finance, business and engineering sectors, while the EU would benefit from technological cooperation.
This would advance Taiwan’s knowledge economy.
Danish consultancy firm Copenhagen Economics estimates that an FTA would generate 20 billion euros (US$28 billion) over 10 years for the EU, while Taiwan’s GDP would grow 1.2 percent.
China trails Taiwan in industrial sophistication, so linking Taiwan’s economic freedom to FTA agreements China has signed with other countries would not necessarily advance the competitiveness of Taiwanese industries.
China and the EU have no FTA, and therefore, Taiwan would not be allowed to enter into negotiations with the EU. Nor does it help that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) seems rather uninterested in the EU. This, despite South Korea’s recent FTA with the EU and the announcement that Singapore and the EU agreed to start negotiations on an FTA.
This KMT policy will exacerbate Taiwan’s isolation and its disappearance into a coming cross-strait market envisioned by the KMT, which will easily become a Greater China Market including China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
This will be a “one country, four systems” model.
Taiwan will not be able to escape this fate if it signs an unstrategic agreement bound by Chinese tunnel vision.
An ECFA with China is not necessarily a bad idea, but it all depends on the content and the room for maneuver that it leaves Taiwan in terms of seeking deals with other countries.
There are countless reasons to be pragmatic when dealing with China. There is no reason to be irresponsible and short-sighted.
The 2012 presidential election will not only concern economic and political integration with China but also the nation’s international status and democratic future.
Taiwan’s democracy would not survive political integration with China.
Michael Danielsen is the chairman of Taiwan Corner.
A failure by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to respond to Israel’s brilliant 12-day (June 12-23) bombing and special operations war against Iran, topped by US President Donald Trump’s ordering the June 21 bombing of Iranian deep underground nuclear weapons fuel processing sites, has been noted by some as demonstrating a profound lack of resolve, even “impotence,” by China. However, this would be a dangerous underestimation of CCP ambitions and its broader and more profound military response to the Trump Administration — a challenge that includes an acceleration of its strategies to assist nuclear proxy states, and developing a wide array
Eating at a breakfast shop the other day, I turned to an old man sitting at the table next to mine. “Hey, did you hear that the Legislative Yuan passed a bill to give everyone NT$10,000 [US$340]?” I said, pointing to a newspaper headline. The old man cursed, then said: “Yeah, the Chinese Nationalist Party [KMT] canceled the NT$100 billion subsidy for Taiwan Power Co and announced they would give everyone NT$10,000 instead. “Nice. Now they are saying that if electricity prices go up, we can just use that cash to pay for it,” he said. “I have no time for drivel like
Twenty-four Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers are facing recall votes on Saturday, prompting nearly all KMT officials and lawmakers to rally their supporters over the past weekend, urging them to vote “no” in a bid to retain their seats and preserve the KMT’s majority in the Legislative Yuan. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which had largely kept its distance from the civic recall campaigns, earlier this month instructed its officials and staff to support the recall groups in a final push to protect the nation. The justification for the recalls has increasingly been framed as a “resistance” movement against China and
Jaw Shaw-kong (趙少康), former chairman of Broadcasting Corp of China and leader of the “blue fighters,” recently announced that he had canned his trip to east Africa, and he would stay in Taiwan for the recall vote on Saturday. He added that he hoped “his friends in the blue camp would follow his lead.” His statement is quite interesting for a few reasons. Jaw had been criticized following media reports that he would be traveling in east Africa during the recall vote. While he decided to stay in Taiwan after drawing a lot of flak, his hesitation says it all: If
RSS