Fuel prices have increased, and real estate and commodity prices are likely to follow suit. Many now think that developing energy autonomy can reduce import dependence and even resist rising oil prices.
A look at environmental policies in President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) election platform reveals that he proposed to promote energy diversification and raise the consumption of low carbon-emitting energy.
This seems to envision a future in which Taiwan will have a choice of energy resources and in which carbon dioxide emissions will be greatly reduced, turning Taiwan into a low-emissions society. However, there has been no discussion of the costs of achieving this goal.
It is difficult to imagine that Ma intends to increase low-emissions power generation to more than 50 percent of total electricity generation by building additional nuclear power plants. The only choice left is to develop sources of renewable energy.
The previous government set the goal of raising the proportion of renewable energy in the consumption of electricity to 10 percent of capacity by 2010, but actual production might only end up half of that. Official statistics show that we have spent around NT$14 billion (US$460.4 million) thus far on installing wind power generation systems for an annual electricity production of nearly 800 million kilowatt-hours, and reducing emissions by 0.23 percent.
Around NT$600 million has also been spent on solar power generation systems with a capacity of 2 megawatts and an annual electricity production of 2.2 million kilowatt-hours, but this has only reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 6 parts per million. Thus, if we assume that Ma wants to reach the 50 percent target in eight years, the annual investment in power generation will have to be astronomical.
Energy problems involve quantitative and qualitative aspects, and both should be taken into consideration. The former aspect relates to whether supply is sufficient, while the latter covers questions like safety, stability and environmental protection.
Current renewable energy sources such as wind power, solar energy and biofuels perform very well on environmental protection indexes in terms of pollution and carbon dioxide emissions.
The inherent limitations of these energies, however, are their lack of stability and safety.
More importantly, small production volume and regional limitations mean that they cannot be supplied on a large scale.
Another crucial factor for these energies is their high cost, so it may turn out that we will simply be unable to solve Taiwan’s energy problems through renewable energies alone.
Some also argue that if oil prices continue to rise, renewable energy prices will become increasingly competitive.
This may be true, but we must be aware that as gasoline prices surge, the costs of materials and labor for developing renewable energy will also increase.
In addition, as petroleum supplies drop, the supply of silicon crystals necessary for solar power will tighten.
Therefore, with oil prices so high, setting unrealistic goals for developing renewable energies will only add to the pressure on energy prices.
We are faced with the global warming challenge, and it is becoming necessary to develop renewable energies, but that doesn’t mean that we can exclude economic concerns.
We should also have a clear understanding of the characteristics of renewable energy sources and use them appropriately as auxiliary or distributed sources.
For example, it is far more effective to install solar power generation systems in remote mountainous areas with a small and scattered population than to build complicated electricity distribution systems. Wind power generation is preferable to thermal power generation for outlying islands. With all of the organic agricultural waste in the countryside, biogas could be the best source of energy for farming and raising livestock.
The only way to respond to rising energy prices is to conserve energy and improve the efficiency of energy use. Energy-saving architecture might be the best tool we have in this regard.
The government should convene a national conference on energy issues and commence a comprehensive, long-term analysis of potential energy resources.
However, it should not arbitrarily endorse the development of a certain energy source and make large investments that allow a specific industry to profit.
Instead, it should conduct an objective supply-and-demand analysis and explore what different renewable energy sources can contribute in terms of quality and quantity when fully developed.
All this should be carefully assessed, and the government should provide the public with objective and quantifiable data for reference. In so doing, the government should not always trust in academic authority and waste valuable resources for research and development.
Chen Wen-ching is a researcher at the Environment and Development Foundation.
TRANSLATED BY TED YANG
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