Palestinian politics is approaching the point of no return. The power struggle between the Islamist Hamas and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his secular and nationalist Fatah movement is intensifying, with tensions breaking into outright combat.
Since Hamas was founded in the early 1980s, it has refused to come under the leadership of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Hamas' victory in the parliamentary election earlier this year -- a democratic watershed -- demonstrated that it had come of age politically. For the first time in Palestinian history, a religious party is dominant. But Fatah has not accepted defeat, while Hamas is convinced that elements within Fatah agree with Israeli and US plans to topple the Hamas government.
Abbas remains the Palestinian president, and the Basic Law makes him commander of all Palestinian security forces. However, while most official security forces remain loyal to him, over the past year Hamas has created an alternative security structure, built around a 4000-member "Operational Force." Moreover, Hamas has announced plans to recruit 1,500 additional security personnel for the West Bank, Fatah's stronghold. In recent weeks, the two sides have clashed frequently across the Gaza strip, heightening tensions further.
The confrontations have come at a time when Abbas has been trying to persuade Hamas to moderate its anti-Israel stance and ally with Fatah in a national unity government. Abbas believes that Hamas' acceptance of negotiations with Israel is the only way to break the international sanctions that are devastating Palestinian society.
Despite this, both sides are building up their forces. Intelligence reports suggest that Hamas is smuggling weapons and explosives from the Sinai into the Gaza Strip at an accelerated pace. The US, Israel and some Arab governments plan to arm and train forces loyal to Abbas, especially his presidential guard. They want to prepare Abbas' forces in Gaza for a confrontation with Hamas, which they believe is inevitable.
Israel is considering Abbas' request to transfer arms and ammunitions from Egypt and Jordan in hopes of bolstering his loyalist forces. There is also a US proposal to allow the Badr Brigade -- a wing of the Palestine Liberation Army that is stationed in Jordan -- to relocate to the Palestinian territories as Abbas' rapid reaction force in Gaza in anticipation of a feared civil war. The Badr Brigade is composed of several thousand Palestinians, mostly long-time PLO activists.
As the maneuvering continues, Israel and Egypt find themselves working together to bolster Abbas and Fatah. With the Gaza Strip in its backyard, Egypt has already mediated several times between Hamas and Fatah, and has been trying, so far unsuccessfully, to arrange a swap of prisoners with Israel following Hamas' abduction of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.
But Egypt's government is angry with Hamas for opposing the formation of a coalition government. Indeed, the seizure of Shalit deepened the rift between Hamas and Fatah, which believes that the abduction was staged in order to sabotage discussions for a national unity government.
More generally, Egypt is concerned that Gaza is becoming politically radicalized and may be transformed into "Hamastan." This, Egypt fears, would give a boost to its own Islamic radicals, against which the government has long fought.
Egypt also worries about a possible Hamas-Fatah civil war. Although Hamas has ruled this out, it has not hesitated to use heavy force against its opponents. Likewise, Foreign Minister Mahmoud al-Zahar of the Hamas-led government says that any dissolution of the government or call for early elections by Abbas would be a recipe for civil war.
Fear of major fighting has already sent many Palestinians into Egypt, leading to the deployment of Egyptian troops on the border to control any exodus.
Israel, meanwhile, is worried that Hamas has strengthened its military grip on Gaza, in terms of both fortifications and networks capable of launching Qassam rockets into neighboring Israeli towns. Israel might not wait for Abbas and his forces, but rather launch a full-scale intervention to weaken Hamas.
Can Hamas and Fatah put aside their differences and form a unity government?
Abbas says that if a coalition government is not agreed upon within the next two weeks, he will dissolve the government, a move Hamas will not tolerate. But forming a coalition government is unlikely to ease the tension between Hamas and Fatah. New confrontations would likely emerge as soon as a new government were formed.
Ironically, the most likely way to avoid large-scale confrontation between Fatah and Hamas is through an Israeli incursion into Gaza. Facing the Israelis together is the only way that the rival Palestinian groups will postpone their own bloody showdown.
Mkhaimar Abusada is a professor of political science at al-Azhar University in Gaza. Copyright: Project Syndicate
In an article published in Newsweek on Monday last week, President William Lai (賴清德) challenged China to retake territories it lost to Russia in the 19th century rather than invade Taiwan. “If it is really for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn’t China take back Russia?” Lai asked, referring to territories lost in 1858 and 1860. The territories once made up the two flanks of northern Manchuria. Once ceded to Russia, they became part of the Russian far east. Claims since then have been made that China and Russia settled the disputes in the 1990s through the 2000s and that “China
China has successfully held its Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, with 53 of 55 countries from the African Union (AU) participating. The two countries that did not participate were Eswatini and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, which have no diplomatic relations with China. Twenty-four leaders were reported to have participated. Despite African countries complaining about summit fatigue, with recent summits held with Russia, Italy, South Korea, the US and Indonesia, as well as Japan next month, they still turned up in large numbers in Beijing. China’s ability to attract most of the African leaders to a summit demonstrates that it is still being
Trips to the Kenting Peninsula in Pingtung County have dredged up a lot of public debate and furor, with many complaints about how expensive and unreasonable lodging is. Some people even call it a tourist “butchering ground.” Many local business owners stake claims to beach areas by setting up parasols and driving away people who do not rent them. The managing authority for the area — Kenting National Park — has long ignored the issue. Ultimately, this has affected the willingness of domestic travelers to go there, causing tourist numbers to plummet. In 2008, Taiwan opened the door to Chinese tourists and in
Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) Chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) on Thursday was handcuffed and escorted by police to the Taipei Detention Center, after the Taipei District Court ordered that he be detained and held incommunicado for suspected corruption during his tenure as Taipei mayor. The ruling reversed an earlier decision by the same court on Monday last week that ordered Ko’s release without bail. That decision was appealed by prosecutors on Wednesday, leading the High Court to conclude that Ko had been “actively involved” in the alleged corruption and it ordered the district court to hold a second detention hearing. Video clips
RSS