I think of many things when I think of Proton, Malaysia's national car manufacturer. Shifts in global economic trends, business, or diplomacy are not, I confess, among them. But now I have to wonder.
You may not have even noticed the news. Kim Yong-nam, president of North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly and for many years Pyongyang's official shaker of foreign hands, toured the Proton production plant in Shah Alam, a provincial city south of Kuala Lumpur, and talked about the prospects for a joint venture manufacturing facility up where he lives.
With a retinue of 30 North Korean officials tailing him, Kim also visited Thailand, where he negotiated barter deals with Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Then it was on to Britain and various continental capitals.
Small beer, surely. Kim's Malaysian tour can't account for the extraordinary rise of late in the share price of Perusahaan Otomobil Nasional, as Proton is officially known. That must be attributed to favorable currency movements, a rosy earnings outlook, and talk of a foreign equity stake -- no, not North Korean. The stock closed Friday in Kuala Lumpur at 11 ringgit, unchanged on the day and up 42 percent this year.
"Building a car in North Korea -- they've been dreaming of that for a long time," says Bradley Martin, a correspondent colleague for many years and a North Korea specialist now at Dartmouth College. "But you put a car plant where people can buy cars, and there's no way North Koreans can buy cars in any number."
Fair enough, as things stand. Such initiatives as these have come to nothing before -- nothing except a US$12 billion foreign debt for Pyongyang.
But things change. Follow the recent travels of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il -- remember his visit to the Buick plant in Shanghai last year? -- and it seems evident that reforms of some kind, and at some point, are on his mind.
Malaysian officials are keen on the idea of a Proton plant in North Korea. In Thailand, a deal to exchange rice for North Korean minerals and machinery seems to be moving through the bureaucracies on both sides.
We will have to wait and see about all this, as Martin urges.
All the same, I see a larger dynamic at work here, and it has to do with the context of these contacts. It is a little more than a month since the Bush administration put North Korea on its "axis of evil" list. In a dramatic reversal of past policy, Bush is now preparing to confront North Korea over its refusal to let American inspectors see its nuclear facilities.
This tells us something -- and asks us something, too.
However strenuously Americans may now try to redefine the planet in with-us-or-with-them terms, regional cooperation and integration on the economic level is the more powerful impulse.
This is true whether or not a Proton ever rolls by a statue of Kim Il-sung on that eerie-looking main drag in Pyongyang.
Asian solutions to Asian problems. I approve, even as I wonder what they may be thinking at General Motors Corp -- which makes no secret of its interest in Korean consumers -- as to the peculiar nexus of politics and investment one finds in Asia.
The question Proton implicitly poses is this: What is the wise course with the North Koreans? On the one hand there is the "sunshine policy" of South Korean President Kim Dae-jung -- the use of commercial and diplomatic engagement to draw North Korea out of its isolation. Americans are no strangers to this strategy -- when it suits them.
On the other hand, there is the Cold War-ish standoff the Bush administration has doggedly reconstructed since coming to power just over a year ago.
I know where I stand along this line of inquiry, and I don't feel particularly lonely. I'd rather see a Proton plant in North Korea than some American spook pretending to be an impartial inspector. The one may be impractical at present, but the other will be unproductive -- perhaps purposefully.
The Europeans have now told the North Koreans to start reforming their economy and shape up on the human-rights side if they want more aid. This is just the kind of leverage that's needed, but let's not forget what makes it possible: Less than a year ago the EU took the sensible decision to recognize North Korea -- pointedly, I thought at the time, in the face of Washington's revived hostility.
It has been a long and winding road for Proton, I must say. I recall visiting the Shah Alam plant just before it opened in the late 1980s. The notion of a Malaysian car looked like a hopeless folly at the time. The first Proton Saga came off the line with a subsidy of 20 percent or more, by most analysts' reckoning. Capacity utilization was dismal, and export markets were an embarrassing fantasy.
Now Proton is making a credible bid to become a regional player in the economy end of the market -- and may climb upscale in due course. In January it bought a 49 percent interest in Gold Star Heavy Industry, a Chinese parts maker, which will reduce its dependence upon expensive components shipped from Japan by Mitsubishi Motors Corp, the original source of Proton's technology and a 16 percent partner in the company.
After years of debt and losses, Proton's reserves are healthy, and net earnings, at 300 million ringgit (US$79 million) for the year that ended last March 31, are forecast to rise substantially in 2002. A sizable export market will open up with the creation of a free-trade zone in Southeast Asia -- as will competition at home, it must be added.
A regional player -- I never would have imagined it. Now this may become true in more ways than one. Life is long, one must conclude, and distant horizons eventually draw near. I can't imagine a Proton car plant in North Korea, but that doesn't seem to be the measure of anything.
Tropical Storm Gaemi strengthened into a typhoon at 2pm yesterday, and could make landfall in Yilan County tomorrow, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. The agency was scheduled to issue a sea warning at 11:30pm yesterday, and could issue a land warning later today. Gaemi was moving north-northwest at 4kph, carrying maximum sustained winds near its center of up to 118.8kph and gusts of 154.8kph. The circumference is forecast to reach eastern Taiwan tomorrow morning, with the center making landfall in Yilan County later that night before departing from the north coast, CWA weather forecaster Kuan Shin-ping (官欣平) said yesterday. Uncertainty remains and
SEA WARNING LIKELY: The storm, named Gaemi, could become a moderate typhoon on Wednesday or Thursday, with the Taipei City Government preparing for flooding A tropical depression east of the Philippines developed into a tropical storm named Gaemi at 2pm yesterday, and was moving toward eastern Taiwan, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. Gaemi could begin to affect Taiwan proper on Tuesday, lasting until Friday, and could develop into a moderate typhoon on Wednesday or Thursday, it said. A sea warning for Gaemi could be issued as early as Tuesday morning, it added. Gaemi, the third tropical storm in the Pacific Ocean this typhoon season, is projected to begin moving northwest today, and be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday or Thursday, the agency said. Today, there would likely
DISRUPTIONS: The high-speed rail is to operate as normal, while several airlines either canceled flights or announced early departures or late arrivals Schools and offices in 15 cities and counties are to be closed today due to Typhoon Gaemi, local governments announced last night. The 15 are: Taipei, New Taipei City, Taoyuan, Tainan, Keelung, Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, as well as Yilan, Hualien, Hsinchu, Miaoli, Chiayi, Pingtung, Penghu and Lienchiang counties. People should brace for torrential rainfall brought by the storm, with its center forecast to make landfall on the east coast between tonight and tomorrow morning, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The agency issued a sea warning for the typhoon at 11:30pm on Monday, followed by a land warning at 11:30am yesterday. As of
CASUALTY: A 70-year-old woman was killed by a falling tree in Kaohsiung as the premier warned all government agencies to remain on high alert for the next 24 hours Schools and offices nationwide are to be closed for a second day today as Typhoon Gaemi crosses over the nation, bringing torrential rain and whipping winds. Gaemi was forecast to make landfall late last night. From Tuesday night, its outer band brought substantial rainfall and strong winds to the nation. As of 6:15pm last night, the typhoon’s center was 20km southeast of Hualien County, Central Weather Administration (CWA) data showed. It was moving at 19kph and had a radius of 250km. As of 3pm yesterday, one woman had died, while 58 people were injured, the Central Emergency Operation Center said. The 70-year-old