Global notebook computer shipments are expected to decline about 13 percent year-on-year this year, as rising prices and shortages of key components, including memory chips and central processing units, continue to weigh on consumer purchases in the second half of the year, TrendForce Corp (集邦科技) said yesterday.
The forecast marks a steeper decline than the 9.4 percent contraction that the Taipei-based market researcher projected in January, TrendForce research vice president Boyce Fan (范博毓) told the Taipei Times by telephone.
Major notebook brands have begun raising retail prices in response to higher memory prices, while adjusting product mixes — such as placing greater emphasis on midrange and high-end models, while lowering specifications for entry-level products — to maintain profitability, Fan said.
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However, demand uncertainty remains high in the second half of the year, with notebook brands and supply chain partners continuing to build inventories and accelerate shipments ahead of further price hikes for key components, he said.
Consumer demand and replacement cycles could further weaken in the second half, he added.
Memory suppliers have reallocated capacity to high-bandwidth memory and server applications, reducing shipments to PC makers and module manufacturers, and price trends across DRAM segments are expected to remain supported by tight supply, TrendForce said.
Conventional DRAM contract prices this quarter are projected to rise 58 percent to 63 percent from last quarter, while NAND Flash contract prices are expected to grow 70 percent to 75 percent sequentially, it said.
Artificial intelligence (AI) PCs could eventually become part of a hybrid computing model alongside cloud-based AI services, but tight memory supply and high prices remain detrimental to their wider adoption in the near term, Fan said.
In addition, the success of AI PCs would depend on whether agentic AI applications can deliver tangible benefits to users and generate sustainable demand, he said.
At the Computex trade show in Taipei last week, Nvidia Corp introduced its RTX Spark superchip for AI PCs and pitched a future where laptops run large AI models and act as personal digital agents.
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