Taiwanese consumers have become more optimistic about the economy and financial markets this month, with sentiment toward spending and investment improving in tandem, according to a survey released yesterday by Cathay Financial Holding Co (國泰金控), the nation’s largest financial group by assets.
The monthly poll found that 67 percent of respondents expect Taiwan’s economy to grow by more than 3 percent this year, while 60 percent anticipate inflation to exceed 2 percent.
The results suggest growing public confidence as official data and corporate forecasts continue to signal solid momentum. The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) in August projected GDP growth of 4.45 percent, but DGBAS Minister Chen Shu-tzu (陳淑姿) said last week there was scope for an upward revision toward 5 percent, citing robust export demand driven by the artificial intelligence boom.
Photo courtesy of the Kaohsiung Tourism Bureau
On average, respondents forecast 3.42 percent growth — more upbeat than in previous months, yet still below the government’s projection, Cathay Financial said.
“The public appears more confident about the outlook, but remains somewhat conservative compared with official expectations,” the company said in a statement.
While optimism over growth strengthened, inflation concerns persisted. Respondents on average predicted a 2.25 percent inflation rate, higher than the government’s 1.76 percent forecast. Sixty percent said they expect price increases to surpass 2 percent, reflecting ongoing caution about living costs despite official data showing moderate inflation.
Consumer confidence in spending also rose, with interest in purchasing big-ticket and durable goods rising from the previous month.
In real-estate, more respondents said they saw opportunities to buy or sell property over the next six months, although both readings remained below the neutral level, indicating continued caution in the housing market.
Financial sentiment rebounded notably as global and local stock markets rallied following the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut last month and growing expectations of further monetary easing by major central banks.
Cathay Financial’s stock investment confidence index rose to 24.8, while its risk appetite gauge climbed to 17.2, tracking the TAIEX’s advance to record highs.
The survey also asked respondents how they plan to use the government’s upcoming NT$10,000 universal cash handout, to be distributed next month.
About 41 percent said they would spend the funds on travel and consumption — 26 percent for domestic trips and 15 percent for overseas travel. Another 32 percent plan to invest the money in stocks, mutual funds or foreign currencies, while 14 percent plan to save it.
Cathay Financial said the results suggest the handout could help bolster private consumption in the final quarter of the year, adding further momentum to an economy already buoyed by technology exports and rising household confidence.
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