Global artificial intelligence (AI) notebook computer shipments are expected to account for 19.7 percent of the overall notebook market this year, driven mainly by Apple Inc’s MacBook models, TrendForce Corp (集邦科技) said on Thursday.
The Taipei-based researcher defines AI notebooks by considering their operating system support and the neural processing unit’s (NPU) power, measured in trillions of operations per second (TOPS), TrendForce analyst Sanesha Huang (黃淑芳) told the Taipei Times by telephone.
While Apple defines its MacBook models with M-series chips as AI notebooks, other brands such as Microsoft Corp and Google classify AI notebooks as those with more than 40 NPU TOPS, she said.
Photo: Bloomberg
Apple’s models are expected to account for about 11.4 percent of global shipments this year, compared with 8.3 percent for other brands, indicating Apple would remain the main player in the market, Huang said.
The overall figure was set at the end of August and has been downgraded several times since then, she said.
Huang attributed the downgrade to several factors, including immature AI applications.
While consumers still rely on cloud services such as ChatGPT and NotebookLM, they are not willing to upgrade to AI models, she said.
An AI notebook computer generally costs about US$1,000 due to geopolitical factors and rising chip costs, and even with promotions, they can only be lowered to US$500 to US$900 — too high for broad market acceptance, she added.
Advanced AI notebook models are typically priced 5 to 10 percent higher than traditional ones, she said.
Consumer demand this year has remained focused on low-price models, affecting shipments of more advanced versions, Huang said.
AI notebook shipments this quarter are expected to be limited to a few popular models and fall 10.8 percent quarter-on-quarter, she said.
As demand was front-loaded last quarter, the usual holiday peak season is unlikely to generate great demand, she said.
The figure is to drop 4.5 percent year-on-year, as vendors such as Lenovo Group Ltd (聯想) and Acer Inc (宏碁) pulled in orders for the Southeast Asian market in the fourth quarter last year, creating a high comparison base, she said.
Shipments this year are expected to reach 35.4 million units, up 90 percent year-on-year, due to a low base as shipments only began in the second half of last year, Huang said.
TrendForce expects the global AI notebook penetration rate to reach 28.3 percent next year, but the figure is likely to be trimmed due to geopolitical uncertainties, vendors shifting capacity to Southeast Asia to mitigate US tariffs, and higher chip prices that could raise production costs and retail prices, Huang said.
Among international PC vendors, Dell Technologies Inc has been the most proactive after Apple in deploying AI notebooks, given its focus on advanced products and willingness to adopt new technologies, followed by Lenovo and HP Inc, she said.
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