The global commercial aviation fleet would stand just under 50,000 planes in 2044, with most built over the next 20 years, a Boeing Co forecast released on Saturday said.
The global fleet would nearly double to 49,600, a bit below Boeing’s prior annual outlook, the company said ahead of the Paris Air Show beginning today.
Emerging markets “with expanding middle classes, dynamic and competitive airline networks and sustained aviation investment” would represent more than 50 percent of the commercial fleet in 2044, up from nearly 40 percent last year, Boeing said.
Photo: Reuters
However, the forecast also showed the effects of supply chain difficulties in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The supply chain has probably had a small role in our slight reduction in deliveries over the next 20 years,” Boeing commercial marketing vice president Darren Hulst said at a briefing on Tuesday.
The briefing came before Thursday’s deadly Air India crash of a Boeing 787 Dreamliner.
Following the crash, which killed at least 279 people, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg and commercial plane chief Stephanie Pope canceled plans to attend.
The Boeing forecast projects annual passenger growth of 4.2 percent, above the 2.3 percent annual growth in GDP.
“New aircraft deliveries haven’t been able to keep up with the demand,” said Hulst, who estimates that the problem has resulted in a “cumulative shortage” of about 1,500 to 2,000 planes.
However, Hulst said he expects the cadence of deliveries to pick up between now and the end of the decade.
Of the 43,600 new planes required between now and 2044, an estimated 21,100 would replace existing fleet and 22,500 would be needed to address rising demand in China and emerging markets.
These figures indicate an expected dramatic expansion of the global air fleet over four decades from 2004, when the fleet consisted of just 16,780 planes.
In a sign of how the aviation market has changed, the 10 biggest aviation companies in 2004 accounted for 45 percent of the global fleet and were dominated by companies from North America and Europe.
Today’s top 10 account for just 30 percent of the market and are composed of a greater share of companies from Asia and the Middle East — a region that had no companies in the top 10 in the earlier period.
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