Exports last month spiked 18.6 percent from a year earlier to a new high of US$49.57 billion, driven by front-loading demand on the part of corporations to cope with US President Donald Trump’s threat of “reciprocal” tariffs, the Ministry of Finance said yesterday.
Last month’s results turned out way better than expected, approaching the US$50 billion mark for the first time despite the weak seasonality, but it remains to be seen if the momentum is sustainable this month and beyond, Department of Statistics Director-General Beatrice Tsai (蔡美娜) said.
Tsai said she is looking at a flat showing for this month, when exports are likely to hold steady or grow 5 percent from the year-ago figures.
Photo: CNA
“The speculation doesn’t factor in US tariff hikes, because it is hard to predict Trump’s next moves and it is too early to gauge repercussions from Washington’s drastic tariffs on China,” Tsai said.
China, including Hong Kong, remains Taiwan’s largest export destination with a 28.9 percent share, though the US is catching up with a 25.7 percent share, propelled by the artificial intelligence (AI) craze, the ministry’s latest data showed.
Furthermore, it is not clear how Taiwanese firms would tackle the major shift in US trade policy, Tsai said.
Some would wait and see, while others are adjusting their global footprint, the official said.
Still others might be pushed out of the market altogether due to a lack of competitiveness, she added.
Regardless, Taiwan’s exports in the first quarter swelled 17.5 percent year-on-year to US$129.58 billion, beating the forecast of the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) by 7.3 percentage points, Tsai said.
That is favorable for GDP growth, but economic policymakers and academics have voiced grave concern that Taiwan’s export-focused economy would start to feel the pain of tariffs in the second half.
Shipments of semiconductors expanded 20.6 percent to US$16.46 billion, while information and communications technology products grew 34 percent to US$16.94 billion, Tsai said, adding that the fast growth also had much to do with AI development.
Front-loading activity extended to non-tech products, as seen in double-digit increases in shipments of electrical, optical and mineral products, the ministry said.
Textile and plastic products bucked the upward trend with declines of 6.8 percent and 4.6 percent respectively, as a supply glut and rising competition from Chinese rivals continued to weigh, Tsai said.
At the same time, imports rose 28.8 percent annually to US$42.6 billion, leaving a trade surplus of US$6.95 billion, a 20.1 percent retreat from a year earlier, the official said.
In the first three months, imports amounted to US$106.02 billion, also stronger than the DGBAS’ projection.
Taiwan’s policymakers have suggested the country buy more military weapons, energy and agricultural products from the US to mitigate trade surpluses with the US and appease Trump.
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