Sun, Nov 06, 2022 page10

• Copper soars most since 2009, supply still tight

  • Bloomberg
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  Copper jumped the most since January 2009 as optimism about a relaxation in China’s COVID-19 policies and a steep decline in the US dollar set off a scorching run-up across industrial metals markets already facing tight supply.

  Copper closed 7.1 percent higher on the London Metal Exchange, while zinc rose 5.7 percent and aluminum rallied 4 percent. Mining equities also jumped, with Anglo American PLC surging 11 percent.

  A slumping dollar boosts purchasing power for commodities consumers in countries such as China, where the yuan saw its biggest rally since 2005.

  

  Copperware is displayed outside a shop at the Safarin market in the center of Baghdad on Oct. 7.

  Photo: AFP

  Metals have been caught for months in a push-pull between the soaring US dollar and global economic gloom, on the one hand, and chronic supply constraints that have gripped markets including copper and zinc, creating the risk of whipsawing rallies if demand conditions improve.

  Still, the strong US currency and macroeconomic pressures from rising interest rates to the debt crisis in China’s property sector and Europe’s energy crunch have kept prices under pressure for months — even after Friday’s surge, copper is only at its highest since mid-September.

  This week, sentiment toward China shifted rapidly as a flurry of market-friendly headlines — along with unverified talk that China is poised to exit its strict “zero COVID” policy — helped unleash a sharp rally in Chinese equity markets.

  Adding fuel to Friday’s rally on the London Metal Exchange, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index earlier plunged by the most since March 2020 in the wake of US data showing a rise in new jobs, but an increase in the overall unemployment rate.

  Copper rose as high as US$8,121 a ton (US$8251 a tonne), before closing at US$8,099 a ton, in the biggest daily gain since January 2009.

  Protests at MMG Ltd’s giant Las Bambas mine in Peru also stoked concerns about supply, after the company said it has been progressively halting operations since Oct. 31 due to blockades at the mine.

  “Despite the recent announcement by MMG that it plans to double copper production from all its operations by 2025, recurrent and ongoing disruptions from indigenous communities at Las Bambas have resulted in around 18 months of outages over the last six years,” Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodity research at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in an e-mailed note.

  Supply worries are also rising to the fore in the zinc market. Stockpiles in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses posted a 44 percent weekly drop to 24,925 tons — nearing a record low struck in 2018 — in a fresh sign that buyers in the world’s largest commodities market are running critically short of the steelmaking metal.

  SHFE contracts for nearby delivery have also been trading at huge premiums to later-dated futures, in a condition known as backwardation that is a hallmark feature of a supply shortage.

  Despite the zinc market’s tight dynamics, prices had tumbled during a broad retreat in metals markets as worries about demand mounted in the past few months.

  Now, sentiment is shifting rapidly in China, with investors across financial markets hoping that the country’s COVID-19 containment measures will be relaxed.

  “We wouldn’t expect an easing to materially take place until Q1/Q2 at the earliest,” StoneX Group senior metals analyst Natalie Scott-Gray said by e-mail. “However, where we do suspect to see more optimism is coming from falling SHFE stocks in China, strong import premiums and, indeed, month-on-month increases in imports of the base metals.”
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