Cathay Financial Holding Co (國泰金控) yesterday raised its GDP growth forecast for Taiwan to 6.1 percent for this year and 3.9 percent for next year, citing a recovery in private consumption and continued growth in exports.
In September, the firm forecast growth of 5.6 percent for this year and 3.5 percent for next year.
Although the uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic persists, domestic consumption has significantly recovered in the fourth quarter, alleviating most economists’ main concerns regarding the local economy this year, said National Central University economics professor Hsu Chih-chiang (徐之強), who heads a research team commissioned by Cathay Financial.
Photo: Allen Wu, Taipei Times
Retail sales rebounded to NT$373 billion (US$13.46 billion) in October and NT$375.4 billion last month, following five consecutive months of annual decline due to the implementation of a level 3 COVID-19 alert starting in May, Ministry of Economic Affairs data showed.
Despite power rationing in China and a slowing economy in the US, the nation’s exports in the fourth quarter continued to increase by a double-digit percentage thanks to robust demand for technology products amid a digitalization trend, Cathay Financial said.
Since June, exports have hit record highs, with total outbound shipments in the first 11 months of the year advancing 30 percent to US$405.7 billion from a year earlier, Ministry of Finance data showed.
“Next year, we expect domestic consumption to be the driver of economic growth. Exports are expected to keep their growth momentum, but are likely to grow at a slower pace due to this year’s high comparison base,” Hsu said.
Cathay Financial forecast that Taiwan’s economy would expand 3 percent in the first half of next year and 5 percent in the second half, he added.
Next year, the central bank is likely to raise interest rates, given that the US Federal Reserve plans to do so in June at the earliest and considering the rise in inflation, Hsu said.
“It has been 10 years since the last time that the central bank raised its rates, and according to the rule of thumb, it usually hikes rates at a slower pace than when it lowers rates,” he added.
The central bank is likely to raise rates multiple times by 12.5 basis points each time, unless inflation becomes more severe, he said.
To many, Tatu City on the outskirts of Nairobi looks like a success. The first city entirely built by a private company to be operational in east Africa, with about 25,000 people living and working there, it accounts for about two-thirds of all foreign investment in Kenya. Its low-tax status has attracted more than 100 businesses including Heineken, coffee brand Dormans, and the biggest call-center and cold-chain transport firms in the region. However, to some local politicians, Tatu City has looked more like a target for extortion. A parade of governors have demanded land worth millions of dollars in exchange
An Indonesian animated movie is smashing regional box office records and could be set for wider success as it prepares to open beyond the Southeast Asian archipelago’s silver screens. Jumbo — a film based on the adventures of main character, Don, a large orphaned Indonesian boy facing bullying at school — last month became the highest-grossing Southeast Asian animated film, raking in more than US$8 million. Released at the end of March to coincide with the Eid holidays after the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan, the movie has hit 8 million ticket sales, the third-highest in Indonesian cinema history, Film
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s (TSMC, 台積電) revenue jumped 48 percent last month, underscoring how electronics firms scrambled to acquire essential components before global tariffs took effect. The main chipmaker for Apple Inc and Nvidia Corp reported monthly sales of NT$349.6 billion (US$11.6 billion). That compares with the average analysts’ estimate for a 38 percent rise in second-quarter revenue. US President Donald Trump’s trade war is prompting economists to retool GDP forecasts worldwide, casting doubt over the outlook for everything from iPhone demand to computing and datacenter construction. However, TSMC — a barometer for global tech spending given its central role in the
Alchip Technologies Ltd (世芯), an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) designer specializing in server chips, expects revenue to decline this year due to sagging demand for 5-nanometer artificial intelligence (AI) chips from a North America-based major customer, a company executive said yesterday. That would be the first contraction in revenue for Alchip as it has been enjoying strong revenue growth over the past few years, benefiting from cloud-service providers’ moves to reduce dependence on Nvidia Corp’s expensive AI chips by building their own AI accelerator by outsourcing chip design. The 5-nanometer chip was supposed to be a new growth engine as the lifecycle
RSS