The global PC market is forecast to grow significantly this year from last year, but at a slower pace than previously expected due to continued supply chain and logistics challenges, research firm International Data Corp (IDC) said last week.
Worldwide PC shipments are forecast to increase 14.2 percent on an annual basis to 347 million units this year, due to demand from the business and education sectors, IDC’s latest estimate showed on Tuesday last week.
IDC, which categorizes PCs as desktops, notebooks and workstations, said the new estimate was lower than its May forecast of an annual growth of 18 percent, due to component shortages and logistics issues, as well as declining demand for devices for working from home as more people return to the office amid rising COVID-19 vaccination rates.
Photo courtesy of Acer Inc
The tablet market is also expected to grow this year, but at a much slower pace of 3.4 percent, the Massachusetts-based research firm said in a report.
The forecast was echoed by PC vendors HP Inc and Dell Technologies Inc, as both on Thursday said that supply constraints continued to hold back shipments, while chipmaker Intel Corp last month said that a semiconductor shortage would likely persist throughout the year.
IDC mobile device tracker program vice president Ryan Reith said in a statement that “the PC and tablet markets are supply constrained and that demand is still there.”
The supply constraints are mainly related to panels and ICs, IDC said.
“The lengthening of the supply shortages combined with ongoing logistical issues are presenting the industry with some big challenges,” Reith said. “However, we believe the vast majority of PC demand is nonperishable, especially from the business and education sectors.”
Worldwide, 280 million units were shipped last year, up 11 percent from the previous year, driven by telecommuting and online education demand amid the COVID-19 pandemic, IDC said.
From this year to 2025, PC shipments are expected to increase by a compound annual growth rate of 3.2 percent, led by laptop sales, while tablet shipments are predicted to decline by a compound annual growth rate of 1.5 percent over the same period, IDC said.
Although a level of normalcy in people’s daily lives would return after the pandemic is brought under control, and demand for videoconferencing would wane in advanced countries such as the US and European nations, demand for commercial laptops and desktops is expected to grow, Yuanta Securities Investment Consulting Co (元大投顧) said in a research note on Aug. 18.
PC shipments are expected to slow from the second half of this year to the first half of next year as work-from-home demand subsides, Yuanta said.
Demand would accelerate again in the second half of next year due to the end of inventory destocking and Nvidia Corp’s biennial upgrades to its graphics processing units (GPUs), it said.
“We forecast notebook shipments to grow 13.1 percent year-on-year to 227 million units in 2021,” Yuanta said. “We estimate notebook shipments will be flat in 2022, as rising demand for commercial products and shipment growth for gaming products boosted by Nvidia’s biennial GPU overhaul should offset weakening work-from-home demand.”
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