Taiwan’s export growth might accelerate for the rest of this year as demand for consumer electronics picks up, benefiting local firms in the supply chains of global technology titans, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said yesterday.
The Ministry of Finance on Wednesday next week is to disclose export data for last month after the critical economic gauge expanded 8.3 percent year-on-year to a record US$31.17 billion in August, driven by demand for electronics before the high season and stockpiling by China’s Huawei Technologies Co (華為) ahead of sales bans.
The same factors would continue to shore up tech exports, allowing overall outbound shipments to register a 5.5 percent increase, lower than the market consensus of 7.8 percent, ANZ said.
Export orders, a gauge of actual exports over the subsequent one to three months, rose 12.4 percent and 13.6 percent in July and August respectively from their levels a year earlier, which is a reason for the sanguine projection, it said.
Apple Inc announced the launch of new Apple Watch and iPad models in the middle of last month, with official releases scheduled for this month, ANZ said.
Industry analysts expect the announcement of the new iPhone to take place later this month, with sales to begin next month, which would ramp up business for dozens of Taiwanese suppliers, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (台積電), Hon Hai Precision Industry Co (鴻海精密) and Largan Precision Co (大立光).
“The launches of new iPhones and other brands will act as tailwinds to Taiwan’s tech ecosystem and improve its export outlook toward the year-end,” ANZ said.
The ministry had bet on export growth of 1.5 to 4.5 percent for last month, supported by Huawei’s continued inventory stocking prior to Washington imposing new restrictions on the Chinese telecom giant’s access to US technology on Sept. 15.
Local chipmakers United Microelectronics Corp (聯電) and Vanguard International Semiconductor Corp (世界先進) might benefit from order transfers if Washington, citing national security concerns, imposes purchase restrictions on China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC, 中芯), ANZ said.
Taiwan’s imports last month might have risen 5.8 percent, as demand for non-tech products stabilized after countries opened up their economies and refined measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, ANZ said, adding that if correct, the prediction would give Taiwan a trade surplus of US$3.3 billion.
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