DRAM prices are to extend a lengthy upward spiral as robust demand for PCs and data centers is expected to propel prices by 3 to 5 percent this quarter, boding well for the global memory industry’s growth this year, market researcher TrendForce Corp (集邦科技) said.
The potential price hikes in the traditionally slack season would pave the way for annual revenue growth of 30 percent in the DRAM industry to US$96 billion this year, the Taipei-based technology market researcher said.
That follows a 76 percent price jump last year due to a supply crunch.
The final quarter of last year was the best period for the global DRAM industry, with revenue hitting a record high of US$21.9 billion, propelled by a 14.2 percent quarterly increase in prices, according to TrendForce’s tally.
“As for the first quarter of 2018, the latest survey shows that the PC DRAM prices are set at US$33 on average, based on the negotiations between DRAM suppliers and the world’s top three PC vendors,” TrendForce research director Avril Wu (吳雅婷) said in a report released last week. “That represents about a 5 percent increase from the previous quarter.”
Wu’s projection is in line with the estimate of “slight price hikes” by Nanya Technology Corp (南亞科技), the world’s No. 4 DRAM supplier, for the first quarter of this year.
Nanya Technology said robust demand for gaming PCs and corporate notebook computers would support prices.
The prices of DRAM used in servers are to rise between 3 and 5 percent this quarter from a quarter earlier, given persistently vigorous demand from the four major Internet service providers in North America, TrendForce said.
Those companies continued purchasing DRAM for their new data centers, it said.
Mobile DRAM prices are increase at a quarterly pace of 3 percent this quarter in tandem with weaker-than-expected demand for mobile phones in China, after the prices surged 5 to 20 percent in the final quarter of last year, TrendFroce said.
The moderate price increases for the mobile DRAM are also attributable to the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission’s intervention to curb price hikes, the research house said.
On the supply side, Samsung Electronics Co, the world’s biggest memory chipmaker, is set to start a new round of DRAM capacity expansion this year to brace for growing competition from Chinese rivals and to boost profits, TrendFroce said.
Samsung is expected to produce more DRAM on cost-saving and advanced 18-nanometer technology, the researcher said.
The South Korean firm commanded 46 percent of the world’s DRAM market last quarter.
SK Hynix Inc, the world’s No. 2 DRAM supplier, stood pat on its original capacity expansion plans of producing it first 18-nanometer DRAM at the end of this year and ramping up production at a new 12-inch plant in Wuxi, China, next year, TrendForce said.
Micron Technology Inc is to complete its technology migration to 17-nanometer technology from 20-nanomter at a plant in central Taiwan next quarter, the researcher said.
Micron Technology’s Taoyuan plant is to convert half of its installed capacity into 17-nanometer technology by the end of this year, it said.
Nanya Technology is expected to see higher profit margin this quarter, compared with 38.9 percent last quarter, thanks to a faster-than-expected technology upgrade to 20-nanometer technology, TrendForce said.
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