Taiwanese solar cell makers are expected to benefit from a recovery in global solar photovoltaic installations next year as improving economies are helping developed countries continue with their clean energy subsidy programs, Taipei-based researcher Topology Research Institute (拓墣產業研究所) said yesterday.
Global solar photovoltaic installations are expected to grow 34 percent year-on-year to 7.18 gigawatts next year from this year’s 5.34 gigawatts, Topology said.
Installations may resume growth next year to US$30.35 billion in sales, up 22 percent from the US$24.9 billion estimated for this year, the researcher said. This year is expected to be the first with an annual sales decline, down 6.7 percent, on falling average selling prices, it said.
The growth would mainly come from a pickup in demand mostly in Europe, the US, Japan and China, Topology analyst Amigo Liu (劉舜逢) said during an industry forum arranged by the researcher.
“Following the end of the economic slump this year, the solar industry will shine again next year as governments refocus on green energy policies after the recovery,” Liu said. “I am also upbeat about Taiwanese solar companies.”
Price erosion is expected to slow this year as improving demand offsets oversupply pressure on pricing and gross margins after a deep decline this year, Liu said.
Capital Securities Corp (群益證券) expects Taiwan’s two largest solar cell makers — Motech Industries Inc (茂迪) and Gintech Energy Corp (昱晶能源) — to be the first to benefit from the recovery in solar installations, which the brokerage forecast would be a 40 percent year-on-year increase.
After diversifying into solar polysilicon and solar wafers, Motech should have an better cost structure next year than its rivals and it should show strong growth, coupled with a capacity expansion, Capital Securities said in a report.
Motech may see net income surge more than 15 times to NT$2.08 billion (US$64 million) next year, compared with NT$126 million this year, the report said.
The solar cell maker said earlier this year that it planned to expand capacity significantly to between 800 megawatts and 1 gigawatt next year, compared with 600 megawatts this year.
Riding on growing demand, Gintech may return to profit next year by posting earnings of NT$1.77 billion, from losses of NT$510 million this year, Capital Securities said.
Shares of Motech and Gintech plunged 2.65 percent and 4.38 percent to NT$128.5 and NT$96.1 respectively yesterday, while the benchmark TAIEX edged 0.12 percent lower.
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