Taiwan's economic growth rate this year could fall by up to 0.5 percentage points due to the Sept. 21 earthquake, and projections for the growth rate are likely to be set at between 5.5 percent and 6 percent, a leading private think tank said yesterday.
September's industrial production was down 4.85 percent compared to August. Information technology and electronics production was down 0.81 percent compared to August, but up by 9.97 percent from last year, according to the latest monthly report by the Taiwan Institute for Economic Research (TIER,
The island-wide survey was conducted between Oct. 5 and Oct. 22, so the impact of September's earthquake is included in the report.
"The impact of the quake on crucial industries is very limited. The growth rate for this year is likely to be between 5.5 percent to 6 percent," said Wu Rong-I (
"The worst scenario would be a 0.5 percentage point loss in the GNP," Ray Dawn (
September's export orders were valued at US$10.74 billion (the seventh consecutive month the figure exceeded US$10 billion) and the island's trade surplus increased from August's US$840 million to US$1.16 billion.
However, both exports and imports were hurt by the quake. September's export value stood at US$9.56 billion and with imports totalling US$8.4 billion. This was 13.9 percent and 15 percent less, respectively, than in August.
"Ninety percent of Taiwan's imports are semi finished products and raw materials. If exports drop, imports will naturally fall," Wu said.
Meanwhile, the overnight bank rate of 4.83 percent and the exchange rate of NT$32:US$1 have remained fairly stable, but they are both predicted to rise according to the report.
Most industry leaders are positive about the economy for the next six months. The percentage of those who think that the economy will improve increased from August's 35.1 percent to September's 37.6 percent, and those who believe the economy will turn worse decreased from August's 17.9 percent to September's 11.8 percent.
Industries that had a rough time in September but look to improve during the next six months are man-made fibers, plastics, latex, cement, home electronics, telecommuni-cations, machinery, and import-export businesses, according to the TIER.
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