Singapore’s economy will likely rebound strongly from last year’s recession as surging export demand fuels manufacturing, according to a central bank survey of analysts.
The city-state’s GDP is expected to grow 9 percent this year, according to the median forecast of 19 economists in the quarterly survey, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said yesterday.
In the previous survey in March, analysts had expected the economy would grow 6.5 percent this year.
Singapore’s economy — which relies on trade, finance and tourism — will likely be led this year by a 16.7 percent expansion in manufacturing as non-oil exports soar 17.8 percent, the analysts said.
The government boosted its growth forecast for this year in April to a range of 7 to 9 percent from 4.5 to 6.5 percent as Singapore emerged from a recession last year. The economy expanded 15.5 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier as pharmaceutical and electronic production surged.
“The exceptionally good result in the first half was helped by a comparison to a low base,” said Irvin Seah, an economist at DBS bank in Singapore. “We’ll likely see another double-digit growth figure in the second quarter.”
DBS raised this week its growth forecast for this year to 10.3 percent from 9 percent.
Growth will likely slow in the second half because of weaker export demand from Asia as regional policymakers tighten monetary policy and wind down stimulus spending programs, Seah said.
Analysts forecast that the economy would grow 9.4 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, 6 percent in the third and 5.5 percent next year, the central bank said.
Inflation is expected to rise to 2.8 percent this year, the unemployment rate will be 2 percent and the exchange rate will average S$1.356 against the greenback, little changed from the March survey, the analysts said.
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