Singapore’s economy will likely rebound strongly from last year’s recession as surging export demand fuels manufacturing, according to a central bank survey of analysts.
The city-state’s GDP is expected to grow 9 percent this year, according to the median forecast of 19 economists in the quarterly survey, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said yesterday.
In the previous survey in March, analysts had expected the economy would grow 6.5 percent this year.
Singapore’s economy — which relies on trade, finance and tourism — will likely be led this year by a 16.7 percent expansion in manufacturing as non-oil exports soar 17.8 percent, the analysts said.
The government boosted its growth forecast for this year in April to a range of 7 to 9 percent from 4.5 to 6.5 percent as Singapore emerged from a recession last year. The economy expanded 15.5 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier as pharmaceutical and electronic production surged.
“The exceptionally good result in the first half was helped by a comparison to a low base,” said Irvin Seah, an economist at DBS bank in Singapore. “We’ll likely see another double-digit growth figure in the second quarter.”
DBS raised this week its growth forecast for this year to 10.3 percent from 9 percent.
Growth will likely slow in the second half because of weaker export demand from Asia as regional policymakers tighten monetary policy and wind down stimulus spending programs, Seah said.
Analysts forecast that the economy would grow 9.4 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, 6 percent in the third and 5.5 percent next year, the central bank said.
Inflation is expected to rise to 2.8 percent this year, the unemployment rate will be 2 percent and the exchange rate will average S$1.356 against the greenback, little changed from the March survey, the analysts said.
MORE VISITORS: The Tourism Administration said that it is seeing positive prospects in its efforts to expand the tourism market in North America and Europe Taiwan has been ranked as the cheapest place in the world to travel to this year, based on a list recommended by NerdWallet. The San Francisco-based personal finance company said that Taiwan topped the list of 16 nations it chose for budget travelers because US tourists do not need visas and travelers can easily have a good meal for less than US$10. A bus ride in Taipei costs just under US$0.50, while subway rides start at US$0.60, the firm said, adding that public transportation in Taiwan is easy to navigate. The firm also called Taiwan a “food lover’s paradise,” citing inexpensive breakfast stalls
TRADE: A mandatory declaration of origin for manufactured goods bound for the US is to take effect on May 7 to block China from exploiting Taiwan’s trade channels All products manufactured in Taiwan and exported to the US must include a signed declaration of origin starting on May 7, the Bureau of Foreign Trade announced yesterday. US President Donald Trump on April 2 imposed a 32 percent tariff on imports from Taiwan, but one week later announced a 90-day pause on its implementation. However, a universal 10 percent tariff was immediately applied to most imports from around the world. On April 12, the Trump administration further exempted computers, smartphones and semiconductors from the new tariffs. In response, President William Lai’s (賴清德) administration has introduced a series of countermeasures to support affected
CROSS-STRAIT: The vast majority of Taiwanese support maintaining the ‘status quo,’ while concern is rising about Beijing’s influence operations More than eight out of 10 Taiwanese reject Beijing’s “one country, two systems” framework for cross-strait relations, according to a survey released by the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) on Thursday. The MAC’s latest quarterly survey found that 84.4 percent of respondents opposed Beijing’s “one country, two systems” formula for handling cross-strait relations — a figure consistent with past polling. Over the past three years, opposition to the framework has remained high, ranging from a low of 83.6 percent in April 2023 to a peak of 89.6 percent in April last year. In the most recent poll, 82.5 percent also rejected China’s
PLUGGING HOLES: The amendments would bring the legislation in line with systems found in other countries such as Japan and the US, Legislator Chen Kuan-ting said Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Chen Kuan-ting (陳冠廷) has proposed amending national security legislation amid a spate of espionage cases. Potential gaps in security vetting procedures for personnel with access to sensitive information prompted him to propose the amendments, which would introduce changes to Article 14 of the Classified National Security Information Protection Act (國家機密保護法), Chen said yesterday. The proposal, which aims to enhance interagency vetting procedures and reduce the risk of classified information leaks, would establish a comprehensive security clearance system in Taiwan, he said. The amendment would require character and loyalty checks for civil servants and intelligence personnel prior to
RSS