Economists expect the pace of US growth to pick up in the year ahead as consumers and businesses alike accelerate spending, a new survey said.
The assessment by leading forecasters was set for release yesterday by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). It finds them more bullish than when they were last surveyed in February, with a majority expecting the economy’s performance to exceed the long-term norm this year and next year.
The outlook amounts to an encouraging report card on the economy at nearly the one-year mark of the recovery, which the experts date to June last year when the recession hit bottom.
“Although risks involving Europe have recently escalated, the outlook in this country has improved in most respects,” said Lynn Reaser, the group’s president and chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University. “Growth prospects are stronger, unemployment and inflation are lower, and worries relating to consumer retrenchment and domestic financial headwinds have diminished.”
While the economy is in “reasonably good shape,” she said, forecasters are extremely concerned about the impact of large federal deficits in the future.
The panel of forecasters lifted its expectations for growth this year to 3.2 percent real GDP, up from 3.1 percent in its February outlook. It also pegged next year’s growth rate at 3.2 percent.
Household spending, while still lagging the overall economy, is still expected to grow significantly this year. The forecasters attribute part of that to consumers being less thrifty, with the savings rate for this year seen dropping to 3.4 percent from the 4.6 percent they predicted in February.
Business investment is also expected to fuel the recovery. The economists expect higher operating rates and rising corporate profits boosting companies’ spending on equipment and software, while retailers restock inventory.
Unemployment is forecast to decline to 9.4 percent by year’s end and 8.5 percent by the end of next year.
Forecasters have scaled back their expectations for the housing growth after setbacks earlier this year. However, 65 percent of survey respondents said last year’s lows in home sales and home prices would not be retested.
The NABE survey of 46 professional forecasters was taken from April 27 to May 7.
ROLLER-COASTER RIDE: More than five earthquakes ranging from magnitude 4.4 to 5.5 on the Richter scale shook eastern Taiwan in rapid succession yesterday afternoon Back-to-back weather fronts are forecast to hit Taiwan this week, resulting in rain across the nation in the coming days, the Central Weather Administration said yesterday, as it also warned residents in mountainous regions to be wary of landslides and rockfalls. As the first front approached, sporadic rainfall began in central and northern parts of Taiwan yesterday, the agency said, adding that rain is forecast to intensify in those regions today, while brief showers would also affect other parts of the nation. A second weather system is forecast to arrive on Thursday, bringing additional rain to the whole nation until Sunday, it
CONDITIONAL: The PRC imposes secret requirements that the funding it provides cannot be spent in states with diplomatic relations with Taiwan, Emma Reilly said China has been bribing UN officials to obtain “special benefits” and to block funding from countries that have diplomatic ties with Taiwan, a former UN employee told the British House of Commons on Tuesday. At a House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee hearing into “international relations within the multilateral system,” former Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) employee Emma Reilly said in a written statement that “Beijing paid bribes to the two successive Presidents of the [UN] General Assembly” during the two-year negotiation of the Sustainable Development Goals. Another way China exercises influence within the UN Secretariat is
LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE: The agency advised the public to avoid visiting mountainous regions due to more expected aftershocks and rainfall from a series of weather fronts A series of earthquakes over the past few days were likely aftershocks of the April 3 earthquake in Hualien County, with further aftershocks to be expected for up to a year, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. Based on the nation’s experience after the quake on Sept. 21, 1999, more aftershocks are possible over the next six months to a year, the agency said. A total of 103 earthquakes of magnitude 4 on the local magnitude scale or higher hit Hualien County from 5:08pm on Monday to 10:27am yesterday, with 27 of them exceeding magnitude 5. They included two, of magnitude
Taiwan’s first drag queen to compete on the internationally acclaimed RuPaul’s Drag Race, Nymphia Wind (妮妃雅), was on Friday crowned the “Next Drag Superstar.” Dressed in a sparkling banana dress, Nymphia Wind swept onto the stage for the final, and stole the show. “Taiwan this is for you,” she said right after show host RuPaul announced her as the winner. “To those who feel like they don’t belong, just remember to live fearlessly and to live their truth,” she said on stage. One of the frontrunners for the past 15 episodes, the 28-year-old breezed through to the final after weeks of showcasing her unique