Sales at US retailers probably rose last month for the third time in the past four months, a sign consumer spending will sustain growth into next year, economists said before a government report this week.
Purchases climbed 0.7 percent after a 1.4 percent gain the prior month, according to the median estimate of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before Commerce Department figures on Dec. 11. Other reports may show the trade gap widened in October and consumers grew more confident this month.
Gains in sales indicate US households have survived the worst employment slump in the postwar era and are poised to join in the emerging expansion. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the labor market is moving closer to a period of job creation instead of losses, which may give the economy an additional lift early next year.
“Job gains are in sight,” said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics LLC in Pepper Pike, Ohio. “With employment increases, we can expect people to begin buying some more homes, cars, appliances, etc.”
A Labor Department report last week showed the economy lost 11,000 jobs last month, the smallest decline since the start of the recession in December 2007. The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 10 percent from 10.2 percent.
The report showed “progress, but not good enough,” Geithner said in a Dec. 4 interview for Bloomberg Television’s Political Capital With Al Hunt.
“The key test is when you see companies across the country starting to create jobs and add to payrolls,” Geithner said. “We’re getting closer to that point — that’s the important thing. The economy is now growing and growth seems to be gradually strengthening.”
Auto sales are improving even after the federal “cash-for-clunkers” incentives ended in late August.
General Motors Co, Toyota Motor Corp, Ford Motor Co and Chrysler Group LLC all posted sales last month that beat analysts’ estimates. The seasonally adjusted sales rate was 10.9 million vehicles, up from 10.45 million in October, according to industry figures released last week.
Excluding automobiles, retail sales probably rose 0.4 percent after a 0.2 percent increase the prior month, according to the Bloomberg survey. A gain would be the fourth straight.
Holiday shoppers are turning out. Sales on Black Friday and the weekend after Thanksgiving advanced 0.5 percent as discounts on electronics and toys drew budget-conscious crowds, the National Retail Federation said.
Electronics Sales
Best Buy Co, the biggest electronics chain, had bigger early-morning crowds than last year, said Brian Dunn, chief executive officer and president of the Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based company. He said shoppers would continue to see discounted pricing into the year-end holidays.
“You’re going to see great values throughout the holiday selling season,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television late last month.
TJX Corporation Inc reported sales up 15 percent in the four weeks ended Nov. 28 from a year earlier. The operator of T.J. Maxx and other low-priced apparel retailers forecasts strong sales through the end of the year.
“We are confident in our momentum,” Carol Meyrowitz, chief executive officer of TJX, said in a statement on Thursday.
Gaining Confidence
The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment for this month probably rose to 69 from 67.4 a month earlier, according to the Bloomberg survey before the Dec. 11 release.
The economy grew at a 2.8 percent annual pace in the third quarter following four quarters of contraction that marked the deepest recession since the 1930s. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg early last month forecast growth will accelerate to 3 percent in the current quarter.
The recovery is spurring demand for imports. That probably caused the trade deficit to widen to US$37 billion in October from US$36.5 billion in September, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the Dec. 10 report from the Commerce Department.
The collapse in trade earlier this year brought the deficit down to a near-decade low of US$26.4 billion in May.
With global economies and trade on the mend, oil prices are rising. That helped push up the costs of imported goods by 1.2 percent last month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Compared with a year earlier, import prices probably rose 2.9 percent, economists forecast.
MORE VISITORS: The Tourism Administration said that it is seeing positive prospects in its efforts to expand the tourism market in North America and Europe Taiwan has been ranked as the cheapest place in the world to travel to this year, based on a list recommended by NerdWallet. The San Francisco-based personal finance company said that Taiwan topped the list of 16 nations it chose for budget travelers because US tourists do not need visas and travelers can easily have a good meal for less than US$10. A bus ride in Taipei costs just under US$0.50, while subway rides start at US$0.60, the firm said, adding that public transportation in Taiwan is easy to navigate. The firm also called Taiwan a “food lover’s paradise,” citing inexpensive breakfast stalls
TRADE: A mandatory declaration of origin for manufactured goods bound for the US is to take effect on May 7 to block China from exploiting Taiwan’s trade channels All products manufactured in Taiwan and exported to the US must include a signed declaration of origin starting on May 7, the Bureau of Foreign Trade announced yesterday. US President Donald Trump on April 2 imposed a 32 percent tariff on imports from Taiwan, but one week later announced a 90-day pause on its implementation. However, a universal 10 percent tariff was immediately applied to most imports from around the world. On April 12, the Trump administration further exempted computers, smartphones and semiconductors from the new tariffs. In response, President William Lai’s (賴清德) administration has introduced a series of countermeasures to support affected
CROSS-STRAIT: The vast majority of Taiwanese support maintaining the ‘status quo,’ while concern is rising about Beijing’s influence operations More than eight out of 10 Taiwanese reject Beijing’s “one country, two systems” framework for cross-strait relations, according to a survey released by the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) on Thursday. The MAC’s latest quarterly survey found that 84.4 percent of respondents opposed Beijing’s “one country, two systems” formula for handling cross-strait relations — a figure consistent with past polling. Over the past three years, opposition to the framework has remained high, ranging from a low of 83.6 percent in April 2023 to a peak of 89.6 percent in April last year. In the most recent poll, 82.5 percent also rejected China’s
PLUGGING HOLES: The amendments would bring the legislation in line with systems found in other countries such as Japan and the US, Legislator Chen Kuan-ting said Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Chen Kuan-ting (陳冠廷) has proposed amending national security legislation amid a spate of espionage cases. Potential gaps in security vetting procedures for personnel with access to sensitive information prompted him to propose the amendments, which would introduce changes to Article 14 of the Classified National Security Information Protection Act (國家機密保護法), Chen said yesterday. The proposal, which aims to enhance interagency vetting procedures and reduce the risk of classified information leaks, would establish a comprehensive security clearance system in Taiwan, he said. The amendment would require character and loyalty checks for civil servants and intelligence personnel prior to
RSS