A disastrous energy crunch is looming because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading economist said yesterday.
Fatih Birol, chief economist with Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), said an “oil crunch” within the next five years could jeopardize recovery from the global recession.
Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and stagnation, or even a decline, in supply could derail the recovery, Birol said in an interview with The Independent newspaper.
Birol said many governments appeared unaware that oil is running out faster than previously predicted, with global production likely to peak in about 10 years — at least a decade earlier than most had estimated.
“One day we will run out of oil. It is not today or tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day,” Birol said.
“The earlier we start, the better, because all of our economic and social system is based on oil, so to change from that will take a lot of time and a lot of money and we should take this issue very seriously,” he said.
An assessment of more than 800 of the world’s major oil fields has found most of the biggest ones have already peaked and decline in oil production is running at nearly twice the pace as calculated two years ago.
Birol also warned that the market power of the handful of top oil producers would increase rapidly when the oil crisis begins to tighten after next year.
“The market power of the very few oil-producing countries, mainly in the Middle East, will increase very quickly. They already have about 40 percent share of the oil market and this will increase much more strongly in the future,” he said.
The IEA, the energy monitoring and policy arm of the 30-nation Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, said last month that signs of a strong rally in global economic growth and oil demand were fading.
However, the IEA said in its latest monthly report that there could be a dramatic turnaround for demand next year.
RETHINK? The defense ministry and Navy Command Headquarters could take over the indigenous submarine project and change its production timeline, a source said Admiral Huang Shu-kuang’s (黃曙光) resignation as head of the Indigenous Submarine Program and as a member of the National Security Council could affect the production of submarines, a source said yesterday. Huang in a statement last night said he had decided to resign due to national security concerns while expressing the hope that it would put a stop to political wrangling that only undermines the advancement of the nation’s defense capabilities. Taiwan People’s Party Legislator Vivian Huang (黃珊珊) yesterday said that the admiral, her older brother, felt it was time for him to step down and that he had completed what he
Taiwan has experienced its most significant improvement in the QS World University Rankings by Subject, data provided on Sunday by international higher education analyst Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) showed. Compared with last year’s edition of the rankings, which measure academic excellence and influence, Taiwanese universities made great improvements in the H Index metric, which evaluates research productivity and its impact, with a notable 30 percent increase overall, QS said. Taiwanese universities also made notable progress in the Citations per Paper metric, which measures the impact of research, achieving a 13 percent increase. Taiwanese universities gained 10 percent in Academic Reputation, but declined 18 percent
UNDER DISCUSSION: The combatant command would integrate fast attack boat and anti-ship missile groups to defend waters closest to the coastline, a source said The military could establish a new combatant command as early as 2026, which would be tasked with defending Taiwan’s territorial waters 24 nautical miles (44.4km) from the nation’s coastline, a source familiar with the matter said yesterday. The new command, which would fall under the Naval Command Headquarters, would be led by a vice admiral and integrate existing fast attack boat and anti-ship missile groups, along with the Naval Maritime Surveillance and Reconnaissance Command, said the source, who asked to remain anonymous. It could be launched by 2026, but details are being discussed and no final timetable has been announced, the source
SHOT IN THE ARM: The new system can be integrated with Avenger and Stinger missiles to bolster regional air defense capabilities, a defense ministry report said Domestically developed Land Sword II (陸射劍二) missiles were successfully launched and hit target drones during a live-fire exercise at the Jiupeng Military Base in Pingtung County yesterday. The missiles, developed by the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST), were originally scheduled to launch on Tuesday last week, after the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday long weekend, but were postponed to yesterday due to weather conditions. Local residents and military enthusiasts gathered outside the base to watch the missile tests, with the first one launching at 9:10am. The Land Sword II system, which is derived from the Sky Sword II (天劍二) series, was turned