The Australian Bureau of Meteorology yesterday said that the El Nino weather phenomenon, which can spark deadly and costly climate extremes, would pack a punch this year after declaring its onset in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
El Nino is associated with drought conditions in Australia and occurs when the trade winds that circulate over waters in the tropical Pacific start to weaken and sea surface temperatures rise. It is the weather system’s first appearance in five years.
“This is a proper El Nino effect; it is not a weak one,” Australian Bureau of Meteorology climate monitoring and prediction manager David Jones said. “You know, there is always a little bit of doubt when it comes to intensity forecasts, but across the models as a whole, we would suggest that this will be quite a substantial El Nino event.”
An El Nino had been predicted to start last year; officials said it was a “near miss.”
However, thresholds have now been hit in the tropical Pacific for the first time since March 2010.
“The onset of El Nino in Australia [this year] is a little earlier than usual. Typically El Nino events commence between June and November,” the bureau’s Neil Plummer added.
BUSHFIRE RISK
“Prolonged El Nino-like conditions have meant that some areas are more vulnerable to the impact of warmer temperatures and drier conditions,” Plummer said.
In Australia, El Nino is associated with below-average rainfall and warmer temperatures in much of the nation, and a higher bushfire risk — a particular concern for parts of Australia already in drought.
It is also expected to bring drier conditions to Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia, as well as heavier rainfall in the eastern Pacific and in South American nations, raising the specter of floods and landslides.
The phenomenon can cause havoc for farmers and global agricultural markets.
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