Fri, Aug 07, 2009 page6

• Georgia, Russia step back from fears of war flare-up

  CONFLICT While Georgia says its ties with the US and EU are keeping tensions from boiling over, Russia says the independent region has no capability for aggression

  • AP
  • • 
    • 
    • 

  Despite rising tensions and slashing rhetoric as the first anniversary of the Russian war approaches, top officials in Tbilisi and Moscow downplay the likelihood of renewed fighting — but for deeply different reasons.

  The deputy chief of Russia’s general staff says Georgia is too weak after the war that devastated its military and caused an estimated US$1 billion damage to the struggling country.

  Georgia’s national security adviser, however, says the danger of new fighting appears low because of “preventive diplomacy” and because Russia knows a new war would undermine its influence among neighbors and ­rapprochement with the West.

  

  Semia Kasradze listens to her television set, which has no picture, in her house in the Georgian village of Ergneti near the de facto border with South Ossetia on Wednesday. The other people are unidentified. Along this de facto border, where Russia’s war with Georgia broke out last year, homes still lie in rubble, apple orchards have been burned and residents who once traveled freely across the disputed territory face armed checkpoints. There is a sense that the war is not so much over as frozen in place.

  PHOTO: AP

  In the two weeks ahead of today’s anniversary of the start of the war, Georgia and Russia have accused each other of preparing for new hostilities by allegedly launching small attacks in and around South Ossetia, the separatist region that was the war’s flashpoint.

  CONFLICT

  The conflict erupted in August after escalating exchanges of fire between Georgia and Moscow-backed South Ossetian forces. The region, recognized by Russia as independent after the war, is now home to thousands of Russian troops and cut off by roadblocks from the rest of Georgia.

  Each reported attack was followed by ominous or aggrieved words from both sides, culminating in Russia’s Defense Ministry saying it reserved the right to use all available means against Georgian aggression.

  However, Colonel General Anatoly Nogovitsyn of the Russian general staff gave a milder — if no less contemptuous — assessment on Wednesday, saying: “We don’t see a capability for any kind of aggression.”

  The statement was a distinct backing-off from Russia’s recent allegations that Georgia is rearming with hostile intent.

  Georgia has warned repeatedly that Russia’s and South Ossetia’s recent claims echo the provocations and heated words that preceded last year’s war. But Georgian National Security Council chief Eka Tkeshelashvili contends that Georgia’s close contacts with the US and the EU are keeping the ­tensions from boiling over.

  Georgia has “the assurance that at this time, unlike last year, preventive diplomacy will work in such a manner that we will not see deterioration of the situation,” she said. Russia understands that the political price of any action would be too high, she said.

  POLITICAL PRICE

  Among the political costs of a new war, Tkeshelashvili said, could be the alienation of neighbors, notably oil-rich Azerbaijan, if Russia appears to be trying for tough regional dominance.

  “If Georgia falls ... Azerbaijan is fully encircled and then any independent thought of Azerbaijan for its energy supplies is almost a non-existent case,” she said. “What we see now is a very good example that [the war] worked contrary to Russian aspirations. We see now that even Belarus, which was clearly under Russian influence, now is seeking alternative ways of development and being closer to Europe.”

  Belarus deeply angered Moscow by failing to recognize South Ossetia and another separate province, Abkhazia, as independent.

  But if the war tarnished Russia’s image, it also raised deep concerns in the West about Georgia’s reliability as it seeks membership in NATO and the EU. Georgia’s intense artillery barrage of the South Ossetian capital in the opening hours of the war unsettled allies with suspicions that President Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili is impetuous and willing to spill blood to defend national pride.
• Most Popular

  • 1

    China condemns Pokemon, Detective Conan for spreading ‘Japanese militarism’

  • 2

    Video shows indigenous submarine in action

  • 3

    Leonard’s 41 points lead Clippers over Timberwolves, Knicks cruise to victory

  • 4

    Seahawks win the Super Bowl

  • 5

    US to utilize base near Perth: report