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France may rethink role after Afghanistan ambush

The death of 10 French soldiers in an ambush by insurgents in Afghanistan has stoked a cry at home for France to rethink its commitment to the seven-year mission led by the US.

Most French voters want out, and the opposition is ratcheting up the pressure on French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s government — though analysts say France and other allies will dig in for the fight even as they insist upon a new look at NATO’s strategy against the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

The word “quagmire” has popped up repeatedly when Afghanistan is discussed in Paris political circles — even in Sarkozy’s own party — since last Monday’s well-planned ambush of a French-led patrol in the Uzbin Valley east of Kabul. It was the deadliest attack on international troops in Afghanistan in more than three years, and the latest sign that the insurgency is growing stronger.

“The pressure is going to be: How do we get this war right?” said Francois Heisbourg, who heads the state-funded Foundation for Strategic Research think tank in Paris.

French Prime Minister Francois Fillon has ordered a parliamentary debate and vote on France’s role in Afghanistan, part of a new law requiring a lawmaker vote on foreign military missions lasting more than four months. They are expected to take place between Sept. 22 and Sept. 30.

Analysts say there is little chance that parliament — where Sarkozy’s conservatives have a large majority — will vote to end France’s participation in the Afghan mission.

But Afghanistan is likely to grow in the French public eye.

France has been at the side of the US in Afghanistan ever since the allied invasion in 2001 that toppled the Taliban’s regime. In April, Sarkozy agreed to raise the French commitment by 700 troops — to 3,300 in the Afghan theater.

The evolution of the war in Iraq — while in many ways very different from the one in Afghanistan — looms large in French minds when it comes to considering their country’s future role.

“In the case of Iraq, the Americans had a big strategic rethink about how they were handling it,” Heisbourg said. “That kind of rethink is what’s going to have to take place with Afghanistan.”

Sarkozy’s top adviser, Claude Gueant, said the French public has “poorly understood” the “faraway” war in Afghanistan. He said one of the troubles the allies now face in Afghanistan is the return of jihadi fighters from Iraq.

“Now that the situation is changing in Iraq, they are heading to a new front, which is the one in Afghanistan,” Gueant told Le Parisien newspaper in an interview that was set for publication yesterday.

Analysts say the risk for Sarkozy remains that the mission in Afghanistan could erode his popularity over time — much like former British Prime Minister Tony Blair faced political damage over his commitment to the Iraq War.
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