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ANALYSIS: N Korea-Syria nuke nexus endangers six-party talks

US claims that North Korea helped Syria build a nuclear reactor could wreck a six-party deal under which Pyongyang agreed to end its nuclear weapons drive, experts said.

Although Washington has made clear that the diplomatic initiative will continue, the serious accusation leveled against North Korea would require US President George W. Bush’s administration to impose such high verification standards on denuclearization efforts that Pyongyang may just walk away from the deal, specialists said.

“I suspect what will happen is they will hold the North Koreans to a very high verification standard because they realize what a hard sell this is to [US] Congress and that the North Koreans probably won’t be able to do,” said Michael Green, a top Asia hand in the administration of president George H.W. Bush.

“We can’t simply say that it won’t happen again and that’s good enough, because the North Koreans have violated some significant proliferation red lines and if there isn’t some consequence for that, they are likely to do it again,” he said.

Japan warned yesterday that the US allegations, if proven, would be a blow to the stalled deal on ending the communist state’s nuclear drive.

“If North Korea supported Syria’s nuclear activities, it would be a big problem,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura told a news conference in Tokyo.

“It is extremely regrettable” if North Korea transferred nuclear technology to Syria, Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura said separately.

The six-nation talks group the US, the two Koreas, China, Japan and Russia.

A South Korean diplomat said the reactor accusations would not wreck the multilateral diplomatic initiative.

“This is not a thing that will derail or subvert the six-party process,” South Korean Ambassador to Washington Lee Tae-sik said in Seoul.

“What is important is that we secure a firm pledge by the North against nuclear proliferation,” Yonhap news agency quoted him as saying.

Lawmakers were fuming on Thursday after White House and CIA officials briefed key Congressional panels, seven months after the Syrian nuclear reactor was effectively destroyed in September by a mysterious Israeli air strike.

“If they do reach some kind of an agreement with the six-party talks, it will be much harder for them to go through the Congress and get these agreements approved,” said Pete Hoekstra, the top Republican on the House of Representatives intelligence committee.

Despite months of extensive publicity about the North Korean-Syrian nuclear links, the Bush administration had refused to officially confirm them.

It only spilled the beans under pressure from Congress, which threatened to withhold funding for the nuclear deal, in which North Korea was promised energy aid, diplomatic and security guarantees in return for denuclearization.

Senior administration officials said the delay initially was to avoid a Syrian retaliation that could trigger a war in the Middle East. But that threat, they claim, is believed to have receded and the disclosure now could help pressure North Korea to come clean on its nuclear proliferation.

“The revelation about North Korea assisting Syria following seven months of stonewalling by the Bush administration is a serious body blow to the six-party talks,” said Bruce Klinger, a former US intelligence official in charge of Korean issues.

“Whether it going to be a knock out punch to the six-party talks or not we don’t know yet,” he said.

Questions are now being asked whether the US has given North Korea too much of a pass on its proliferation activities and is getting too little in terms of disablement of key nuclear facilities and a declaration of its nuclear record in exchange for any sanctions lifting.

“The evidence against North Korea is so specific and could potentially be very damning and put negotiations with it completely on hold,” said Sharon Squassoni, a former nonproliferation expert at the State Department.

She and several other experts suspect the timing of intelligence information underscoring North Korea-Syrian nuclear cooperation could have been politically motivated, suggesting a rift within the Bush administration.
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