Tue, Feb 03, 2004 - Page 5 News List

Crowded conditions help nurture influenza viruses

PROXIMITY PROBLEM Scientists believe all flu bugs probably originate in birds, but industrial-scale chicken farming and Asia's climate exacerbate the health risks to humans

AP , BANGKOK

That flu, which killed an estimated 40 million to 50 million people, was so named because the king of Spain got it, not because it originated in Spain.

"We've got a huge amount of information which tells us this virus arose in Europe, not Asia," Oxford said.

"If it is the case that it started in Europe, that tells us that these new outbreaks could happen anywhere in the world where the circumstances are right," he said.

The Europe theory holds that the Spanish flu began in the crowded World War I army camps around Etaples in northern France.

There were 100,000 soldiers on any one day there, and they raised chickens, geese and possibly pigs for food, Oxford said.

Those conditions mimic what naturally occurs in Asia.

A bird flu strain also arose in the Netherlands last year, albeit of a milder strain. The Dutch may have averted an epidemic by slaughtering their entire chicken population within one week.

"I don't think anyone should always assume that these new outbreaks are exclusive to Asia," Oxford said.

He also warned against judging the seriousness of the Asia's current outbreak too quickly.

While the WHO said Friday that testing indicates the strain so far has not been very successful at jumping to humans, Oxford said flu strains may take a year before they really take off.

"We think these outbreaks in these army camps started in 1917, then it took another year of an extra few mutations before it really exploded into the great wide world," he said.

"That's what could happen in Asia. It could be another year before it really gets moving," he said.

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