British Prime Minister Tony Blair long ago lost the youthful optimism of his first runaway election victory, yet survival of a rollercoaster week shows he still knows how to ride his luck.
"He's an extraordinarily fortunate prime minister. Maybe it's because he prays a lot!" said analyst Anthony Seldon after Blair's knife-edge victory in a key parliamentary vote and exoneration by a judge probing the suicide of an Iraq expert.
PHOTO: REUTERS
Blair has confounded doom-mongers who predicted the twin threats converging this week, in a crazy 24 hours of high political drama, could have toppled him.
But he will need plenty more political luck -- or divine help -- to face a future fraught with problems as his ruling Labour Party rebels against his social reform policies and Britons stay dubious over his reasons for the Iraq war.
He also has the brooding presence of his powerful finance minister and rumored rival Gordon Brown to contend with.
Brown helped Blair scrape through Tuesday evening's education vote by just five "ayes," but some think that just cleverly enhanced his credentials to take over from the boss.
The embarrassing reduction of Blair's 161-seat parliamentary majority, in the most serious revolt he has faced to a core domestic policy, has thrown into doubt his entire social reform policy, which Labour traditionalists see as too free-market.
Further readings of the education bill, plus upcoming legislation on asylum and parliamentary reform, are now in doubt as Blair will be forced to consult rebels more closely.
On the Iraq issues bedeviling him for more than a year, a judge cleared Blair on Wednesday of blame for the suicide of weapons expert David Kelly in a report that could have sunk him had the prime minister been personally censured.
But the wider issue of Britons' distrust with Blair's case for war, and particularly his allegations over Saddam Hussein's banned weapons, remains an open political sore.
With none of the banned weapons Blair claimed Saddam had primed for use yet found, many in his war-wary party will never forgive him for convincing them military action was necessary.
"The prime minister led us into a complete disaster. He is either a fool or a knave, either incompetent or a liar -- and who is being hanged today? The BBC and Andrew Gilligan," anti-war legislator George Galloway said.
While judge Lord Hutton cleared Blair, he strongly rapped the BBC and its reporter Gilligan for their role in the Kelly affair.
Blair, looking feisty and relieved in parliament, said Hutton's report vindicated him and proved accusations that he had misled the nation and parliament were "the real lie."
But his principal accuser, opposition Conservative leader Michael Howard, said the saga over Kelly's suicide -- apparently unable to cope with the pressure and depressed by the outing of his name -- reflected badly on Blair.
"The nation will in due course deliver its verdict," he said, referring to the next general election expected next year.
Most analysts expect Blair to win that, but not with the same unassailable lead as in the past. And the jury is out on whether this week's survival act will ultimately strengthen Blair or make him, in his foes' words, a "dead man walking."
"Blood has been let and anger has been satisfied," Seldon said. "It could be the opportunity for a big new reorientation and relaunching of the second term. Or it could turn out to be the turning point in the second term where the party has shown that they're simply not going to buy his agenda."
Ever since the shock 1994 death of former leader John Smith opened the way for Blair to lead the Labour Party, circumstance, charisma and fortune have played a part in his success.
After his 1997 election victory, he earned the nickname "Teflon Tony" because no dirt stuck. But what gloss was left disappeared with the Iraq war.
"The Hutton inquiry did not go to the heart of the matter of whether the government got it right or not on WMD," said politics professor John Curtice.
"The debate about the Iraq war is still going to be with him. The argument inside the Labour Party about the reform of public services is still going to be with him, the rebellious nature of his MPs is still going to be with him."
BOMBARDMENT: Moscow sent more than 440 drones and 32 missiles, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said, in ‘one of the most terrifying strikes’ on the capital in recent months A nighttime Russian missile and drone bombardment of Ukraine killed at least 15 people and injured 116 while they slept in their homes, local officials said yesterday, with the main barrage centering on the capital, Kyiv. Kyiv City Military Administration head Tymur Tkachenko said 14 people were killed and 99 were injured as explosions echoed across the city for hours during the night. The bombardment demolished a nine-story residential building, destroying dozens of apartments. Emergency workers were at the scene to rescue people from under the rubble. Russia flung more than 440 drones and 32 missiles at Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy
COMPETITION: The US and Russia make up about 90 percent of the world stockpile and are adding new versions, while China’s nuclear force is steadily rising, SIPRI said Most of the world’s nuclear-armed states continued to modernize their arsenals last year, setting the stage for a new nuclear arms race, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said yesterday. Nuclear powers including the US and Russia — which account for about 90 percent of the world’s stockpile — had spent time last year “upgrading existing weapons and adding newer versions,” researchers said. Since the end of the Cold War, old warheads have generally been dismantled quicker than new ones have been deployed, resulting in a decrease in the overall number of warheads. However, SIPRI said that the trend was likely
‘SHORTSIGHTED’: Using aid as leverage is punitive, would not be regarded well among Pacific Island nations and would further open the door for China, an academic said New Zealand has suspended millions of dollars in budget funding to the Cook Islands, it said yesterday, as the relationship between the two constitutionally linked countries continues to deteriorate amid the island group’s deepening ties with China. A spokesperson for New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters said in a statement that New Zealand early this month decided to suspend payment of NZ$18.2 million (US$11 million) in core sector support funding for this year and next year as it “relies on a high trust bilateral relationship.” New Zealand and Australia have become increasingly cautious about China’s growing presence in the Pacific
Indonesia’s Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki yesterday erupted again with giant ash and smoke plumes after forcing evacuations of villages and flight cancelations, including to and from the resort island of Bali. Several eruptions sent ash up to 5km into the sky on Tuesday evening to yesterday afternoon. An eruption on Tuesday afternoon sent thick, gray clouds 10km into the sky that expanded into a mushroom-shaped ash cloud visible as much as 150km kilometers away. The eruption alert was raised on Tuesday to the highest level and the danger zone where people are recommended to leave was expanded to 8km from the crater. Officers also
RSS