The Hong Kong political establishment was badly shaken by a mass rally against leader Tung Chee-hwa (
Analysts are mixed in their outlooks for the Nov. 23 District Council contests after Hong Kong politics turned unexpectedly volatile a few months ago.
The territory's biggest pro-Beijing and pro-government party, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong, or DAB, is good at getting out the vote, and it has lots of cash for currying favor, which may pay off in races that ostensibly focus on neighborhood issues like plumbing, garbage collection and bus routes.
But pro-democracy politicians are hoping to get a boost from widespread anger at Tung that helped sparked a march on July 1 by a half million people.
"People are becoming more aware of their political situation," said Yeung Sum, chairman of the opposition Democratic Party. Pointing to a surge in new voter registrations since July 1, Yeung predicted gains for the Democrats, though he refused to be drawn on numbers.
Democrats have plastered Hong Kong with campaign posters showing themselves at the protest, hoping it will give them an edge in a sprawling slate of elections for 326 contested seats on 18 District Councils that handle local affairs around the territory.
Tung had to backtrack on the anti-subversion law, which critics called an assault on Hong Kong's freedoms, and his government was thrown into a crisis that saw the unprecedented departure of two Cabinet secretaries. A bad economy and the SARS outbreak have also fueled discontent.
If the pro-Beijing DAB has a poor showing it could spell trouble for Tung heading into next year's legislative elections.
"If it does happen, it will be an earthquake, and a big one," said Michael DeGolyer, a political scientist at the Hong Kong Baptist University.
Fallout would likely focus on Tung, and whether Beijing can continue its steadfast support of the former shipping tycoon, DeGolyer said.
"Politically he's not just dead meat," he said. "There's flies all over him."
Hong Kong has only partial democracy in a system critics say is rigged in favor of Beijing and big business interests. But the public's views will become more important in September, when ordinary voters will choose half of the 60 Legislative Council seats, as opposed to 24 last time. The other half of the seats will be filled by special interest groups.
Tempering the hopes of the Democrats, the DAB has in the past shown itself better able to deliver on local concerns -- thanks to a strong network that includes good funding from sources that have not been revealed. Critics suspect money comes indirectly from China but there is no proof.
"They can buy support," said Ma Ngok, another university political scientist. "They're not actually buying votes, but they have a lot of resources to hand out a lot of benefits such as setting up local activities. It's buying some kind of relationship."
Others say DAB candidates could benefit from a recent star-studded tour of Hong Kong by China's first man in space, Yang Liwei (楊利偉), which may have boosted spirits that had been darkened in an otherwise dreadful year.
Although most of the candidates are recognized only in their neighborhoods, Hong Kong's best-known anti-government protester, "Longhair" Leung Kwok-hung, hopes to win a seat and vows to wear his trademark Che Guevara t-shirt into council meetings if he can knock off a DAB rival.
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