War in Iraq has swollen the ranks of al-Qaeda and "galvanized its will" by increasing radical passions among Muslims, an authoritative think-tank said Wednesday.
The warning, echoing earlier ones by MI5 and MI6 (British counter-intelligence services), was made in the annual report of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance.
It said US claims after the invasion of Iraq that al-Qaeda was on the run, and that the "war on terror" had turned the corner, were "over-confident."
John Chipman, the institute's director, warned that the full effect of the war might never be known, because of the chaos it had left behind.
"Whatever one may or may not find in the next six months will not be proof of what may or may not have been there ... There will always be a degree of uncertainty," he said.
The report notes that, according to the US, more than 3,000 suspected al-Qaeda operatives have been arrested, including the third in command, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed.
But it adds: "The counter-terrorism effort has also perversely impelled an already highly decentralized and evasive transnational terrorist network to become more 'virtual' and protean and, therefore, harder to identify and neutralize,"
"If al-Qaeda has been compromised since the Afghanistan intervention from an offensive point of view, from a defensive perspective it is better off," the report says.
Al-Qaeda's great advantage, the report says, is its operational flexibility as a result of it not having a state to defend. The institute believes the network is present in more than 60 countries, has a rump leadership intact, and that there are more than 18,000 potential terrorists at large, with recruitment continuing.
Al-Qaeda's cells are taking measures against increasing electronic surveillance, operating semi-autonomously, but "maintaining links through field commanders to [Osama] bin Laden and his shura [council] who can activate networks and give operational orders".
The informal hawala banking system ensured a stream of unregulated cash from diaspora communities to local radical Muslim groups, as the investigation into five suicide bombings in Morocco in May demonstrated.
The failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq will further increase al-Qaeda's recruiting power, says the thinktank.
The network wants to develop its own capability to use weapons of mass destruction, but it probably has not yet done so.
Meanwhile, it is likely to keep hitting soft targets directed at Americans, Europeans and Israelis.
The UK parliamentary intelligence and security committee reported last month that British Prime Minister Tony Blair was warned by his intelligence chiefs on the eve of war that an invasion of Iraq would increase the danger of terrorist attacks.
It disclosed that in February, a month before the invasion, Whitehall's joint intelligence committee said that "al-Qaeda and associated groups continued to represent by far the greatest threat to western interests, and that threat would be heightened by military action against Iraq."
Though al-Qaeda's leadership remains impervious to political compromise, the report says some local affiliates and large numbers of potential recruits are not. The most pressing matter is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Attempts by al-Qaeda to penetrate Hamas have so far failed, mainly because Hamas's objectives are basically local. But "Hamas/al-Qaeda links could materialize if Hamas became desperate and politically marginalized," says the report.
Nearly half of China’s major cities are suffering “moderate to severe” levels of subsidence, putting millions of people at risk of flooding, especially as sea levels rise, according to a study of nationwide satellite data released yesterday. The authors of the paper, published by the journal Science, found that 45 percent of China’s urban land was sinking faster than 3mm per year, with 16 percent at more than 10mm per year, driven not only by declining water tables, but also the sheer weight of the built environment. With China’s urban population already in excess of 900 million people, “even a small portion
UNSETTLING IMAGES: The scene took place in front of TV crews covering the Trump trial, with a CNN anchor calling it an ‘emotional and unbelievably disturbing moment’ A man who doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire outside the courthouse where former US president Donald Trump is on trial has died, police said yesterday. The New York City Police Department (NYPD) said the man was declared dead by staff at an area hospital. The man was in Collect Pond Park at about 1:30pm on Friday when he took out pamphlets espousing conspiracy theories, tossed them around, then doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire, officials and witnesses said. A large number of police officers were nearby when it happened. Some officers and bystanders rushed
HYPOCRISY? The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday asked whether Biden was talking about China or the US when he used the word ‘xenophobic’ US President Joe Biden on Wednesday called for a hike in steel tariffs on China, accusing Beijing of cheating as he spoke at a campaign event in Pennsylvania. Biden accused China of xenophobia, too, in a speech to union members in Pittsburgh. “They’re not competing, they’re cheating. They’re cheating and we’ve seen the damage here in America,” Biden said. Chinese steel companies “don’t need to worry about making a profit because the Chinese government is subsidizing them so heavily,” he said. Biden said he had called for the US Trade Representative to triple the tariff rates for Chinese steel and aluminum if Beijing was
Beijing is continuing to commit genocide and crimes against humanity against Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in its western Xinjiang province, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a report published on Monday, ahead of his planned visit to China this week. The State Department’s annual human rights report, which documents abuses recorded all over the world during the previous calendar year, repeated language from previous years on the treatment of Muslims in Xinjiang, but the publication raises the issue ahead of delicate talks, including on the war in Ukraine and global trade, between the top U.S. diplomat and Chinese