The WHO should declare the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic, health experts at National Taiwan University’s (NTU) College of Public Health said yesterday, adding that the government should bolster disease prevention measures at long-term care centers.
College dean Chan Chang-chuan (詹長權) said that the WHO recently announced that the global death rate for the novel coronavirus is 3.4 percent, higher than previous estimates of about 2 percent, while more than 100 countries have reported confirmed cases.
“The NTU College of Public Health wants to represent the professional point of view and urge the WHO to announce the COVID-19 outbreak a global pandemic,” Chan said. “If these standards do not meet the criteria for a pandemic in international health regulations, then we do not know what else could be called a pandemic.”
Photo: George Tsorng, Taipei Times
Chan last week said that the COVID-19 global death rate was about 2 percent and its transmissibility — the average number of people one case infects — was about 2.2, so he had suggested control measures of keeping space between people and reserving sufficient medical capacity.
However, the measures he advised last week referenced the 1968 H3N2 flu pandemic, but according to Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates, COVID-19 might be the “once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about,” meaning it could be as severe as the 1957 H2N2 pandemic, so preparations should be made accordingly, Chan said.
Local transmission of COVID-19 is likely to occur in the near future, which will become the most difficult period of disease prevention, he said, adding that emphasis should be put on the prevention and control measures at hospitals and long-term care centers.
NTU Institute of Health Policy and Management associate professor Chen Ya-mei (陳雅美) said that a Hong Kong study suggests that the COVID-19 incidence and fatality rates among people aged 70 or above are about three times those for the population, while the fatality rate among people aged 80 or above might reach 15 percent.
In addition, clusters of confirmed cases have been reported in long-term care centers in the US and Australia, implying that elderly people are a high-risk group, Chen said.
Referencing guidelines issued by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Chen said that disease prevention resources provided to long-term care centers should be the same as for hospitals, including protective clothing and masks, as well as offering online disease prevention training courses for caregivers.
The government should offer bonuses for long-term care center personnel and postpone annual assessments of care facilities so that they can focus on disease prevention, she said.
People should keep a social distance of 1.8m to 2m to prevent transmission of the virus, she said.
Taiwan is in the early stage of COVID-19 local transmission, which can easily lead to outbreaks within long-term care facilities, she said, adding that there are about 210,000 people in long-term care, or about 780,000 people if their family members and care facility personnel are included.
The government, academics and industry should cooperate to enhance disease prevention in long-term care facilities, she said.
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