A poll released by Green Party Taiwan yesterday showed President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) beating Hon Hai Precision Industry Co chairman Terry Gou (郭台銘) and Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) by less than 2 percentage points in a three-way presidential race, but losing to Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) by 0.4 percentage points if Han represents the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) instead of Gou.
The telephone poll, conducted on Friday and Saturday last week, interviewed 1,008 voters via landlines and cellphones with a 50-50 weighting.
If Tsai, Gou and Ko run in the election in January next year, 28.9 percent of respondents would support Tsai, while 28.1 percent would vote for Ko and 27.1 would choose Gou, the poll found.
If former premier William Lai (賴清德), Gou and Ko run, 28.9 percent would vote for Ko, 26.8 percent would choose Gou and Lai would receive 25.8 percent, it found.
If Tsai runs against Han and Ko, 30.1 of respondents would vote for Han, 29.6 would vote for Tsai and 26.5 percent would vote for Ko.
If Lai, Han and Ko run, 30.4 percent would vote for Ko, 28.3 percent would vote for Han and 27.3 percent would vote for Lai.
Asked which Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) member — Tsai or Lai — has a greater chance of winning the party’s nomination, 59.1 percent of respondents said Tsai, while 30.3 percent said Lai.
Asked which KMT hopeful — Han, Gou, former New Taipei City mayor Eric Chu (朱立倫) or Legislator Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) — has a greater chance of winning the party’s primary, 38.2 percent said Han, 26.4 percent said Gou, 14.6 percent said Chu and 7.1 said Wang.
Asked if they think Ko would run for president next year, 71.9 percent of respondents said they believe he will, while 21 percent believed he will not.
Asked which party they would vote for, 39.1 percent said the KMT, 30.2 percent said the DPP, 12.6 percent said the New Power Party and 2.6 percent said Green Party Taiwan, the poll showed.
The poll has a confidence level of 95 percent and a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. The respondents were selected randomly and the results have been weighted to fit the population.
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