Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is signaling that he would be prepared to meet “respectfully” with a Taipei government that preserves the “status quo” on independence, a Harvard law professor said.
Harvard University professor of constitutional and international law Noah Feldman said in an essay for Bloomberg View that as China expands its regional military influence, its interest in keeping Taiwan close is greater than ever.
The message for Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is clearly: “Don’t rock the boat,” Feldman said.
“Xi’s increasingly populist, nationalist rhetoric requires him to keep a close eye on Taiwan,” he added.
He says that while the US and Europe have spent the past week focused on the Islamic State, the possibility of conflict between China and Taiwan “is far more dangerous to the world’s security.”
Feldman said that the recent meeting between Xi and President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) was simply a warning for Taiwan not to move toward independence.
He said that a big part of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) struggle in the current presidential election campaign is the “appeal” of Tsai.
Feldman describes her as “sophisticated and progressive.”
However, he reasons there was more to the Ma-Xi meeting than a simple desire to prop up the Beijing-friendly KMT “in its hour of need.”
Feldman said Xi wanted to use the meeting to say that Taiwan should not separate itself by moving toward a symbolic declaration of independence.
“By appearing with Taiwan’s leader two months before Taiwan’s elections, Xi was sending a message of serious attention to Taiwanese affairs,” he said.
“In his mind, China and Taiwan are brothers, and there’s no doubt who’s the older, dominant member of the family,” Feldman said.
He said that the DPP has already moderated its stance on independence as part of its presidential campaign and quotes DPP Secretary-General Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) as saying the party wants to maintain the “status quo” of the current democratic way of life.
“In the delicate signaling game of Chinese-Taiwanese relations this is a way of saying the DPP wants no movement closer to China, and might be prepared to drop its historic focus on stating its independence,” Feldman said.
Feldman said that Taiwan’s de facto independence from China depends on implicit US support and there is no assurance that, if independence were declared and a military crisis followed, “the US would be there to protect Taiwan.”
Feldman said that behind the meeting with Ma was a message that the DPP should not be too aggressive.
“If Tsai wins the presidency, expect tensions between the countries to rise — with serious implications for the US defense presence in Asia and the future of the Cool War,” he said.
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