The US continues to maintain unparalleled fighter aircraft capabilities and would eventually control the skies over Taiwan in the case of an attempted Chinese invasion, but it would take much longer than previously thought, the Rand Corp said in a new report.
Defeating China in a Taiwan-based scenario is becoming increasingly difficult, said the report, titled Rand Project Air Force.
“The United States could improve its results and reduce force requirements by attacking Chinese air bases, thereby reducing the number of adversary aircraft that can reach the fight,” the report said.
However, the decision to launch such attacks would require executive approval and, depending on the circumstances, permission might not be forthcoming, it said.
“Certainly, such attacks would be potentially escalatory,” it said.
Overall, the results indicate that in the face of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force’s modernization, achieving air superiority early in a conflict is becoming increasingly difficult.
“Consequently, US and partner ground and naval forces may have to operate with only limited air support for some period after the commencement of hostilities, should a conflict occur,” the report said.
The overall conclusion is that although China continues to lag behind the US in terms of aggregate military hardware and operational skills, it has improved its capabilities relative to those of the US in many critical areas.
In 1996, China had just taken delivery of its first batch of 24 fourth-generation fighters, but it now operates more than 700, while the US has added fifth-generation fighters to its inventory and its fleet remains both more advanced and larger than China’s.
Balanced against the aggregate US advantage in the case of war over Taiwan or the Spratly Islands (Nansha Islands, 南沙群島), China would enjoy the advantages of proximity, the report said.
“It would be able to operate from far more bases, allowing it to bring more aircraft to bear in a conflict and its vital assets would be both dispersed over much greater areas and hardened against attack,” the report said.
The few US air bases within close proximity would likely face Chinese missile attack, degrading their ability to support operations.
A synopsis of the report issued this week said that it is not intended to predict the precise outcome of a conflict, but to offer a picture of the evolving balance of airpower.
It said that in 1996 the US could have dominated the air over Taiwan from the very start of a conflict, but by 2017 it could take more than three weeks.
“Until US forces achieve air superiority, the PLA air forces would largely have a free hand in attacking targets in Taiwan,” the report said.
“A ground campaign in Taiwan would likely be decided relatively quickly and the inability of US air forces to achieve air superiority during that time would deprive US and friendly forces of much-needed air support,” the report said.
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