The US continues to maintain unparalleled fighter aircraft capabilities and would eventually control the skies over Taiwan in the case of an attempted Chinese invasion, but it would take much longer than previously thought, the Rand Corp said in a new report.
Defeating China in a Taiwan-based scenario is becoming increasingly difficult, said the report, titled Rand Project Air Force.
“The United States could improve its results and reduce force requirements by attacking Chinese air bases, thereby reducing the number of adversary aircraft that can reach the fight,” the report said.
However, the decision to launch such attacks would require executive approval and, depending on the circumstances, permission might not be forthcoming, it said.
“Certainly, such attacks would be potentially escalatory,” it said.
Overall, the results indicate that in the face of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force’s modernization, achieving air superiority early in a conflict is becoming increasingly difficult.
“Consequently, US and partner ground and naval forces may have to operate with only limited air support for some period after the commencement of hostilities, should a conflict occur,” the report said.
The overall conclusion is that although China continues to lag behind the US in terms of aggregate military hardware and operational skills, it has improved its capabilities relative to those of the US in many critical areas.
In 1996, China had just taken delivery of its first batch of 24 fourth-generation fighters, but it now operates more than 700, while the US has added fifth-generation fighters to its inventory and its fleet remains both more advanced and larger than China’s.
Balanced against the aggregate US advantage in the case of war over Taiwan or the Spratly Islands (Nansha Islands, 南沙群島), China would enjoy the advantages of proximity, the report said.
“It would be able to operate from far more bases, allowing it to bring more aircraft to bear in a conflict and its vital assets would be both dispersed over much greater areas and hardened against attack,” the report said.
The few US air bases within close proximity would likely face Chinese missile attack, degrading their ability to support operations.
A synopsis of the report issued this week said that it is not intended to predict the precise outcome of a conflict, but to offer a picture of the evolving balance of airpower.
It said that in 1996 the US could have dominated the air over Taiwan from the very start of a conflict, but by 2017 it could take more than three weeks.
“Until US forces achieve air superiority, the PLA air forces would largely have a free hand in attacking targets in Taiwan,” the report said.
“A ground campaign in Taiwan would likely be decided relatively quickly and the inability of US air forces to achieve air superiority during that time would deprive US and friendly forces of much-needed air support,” the report said.
NATIONAL SECURITY: Authorities are working to confirm the identities of the military personnel involved and investigating possible illegal conduct and regulatory violations Authorities are probing possible national security implications after Kinmen police and immigration officers on Sunday found a Chinese woman allegedly posing as a tourist while engaging in prostitution involving more than 10 military personnel. The woman, surnamed Chen (陳), has since been deported, authorities said, adding that investigators are still working to confirm the identities of those implicated, as the records only listed code names and aliases. The case stemmed from a report received by the Kinmen District Prosecutors’ Office on Friday last week from the Jinhu Precinct of the Kinmen County Police Bureau. On Sunday, police, along with the National Immigration
GLOBALGIVING: ‘ Caving to external pressure is not acceptable for an organization that has cultivated justice reform and human rights for 30 years,’ one NGO said A slew of non-government organizations (NGOs) have withdrawn from the GlobalGiving fundraising platform after it announced it would use “Chinese Taipei” instead of “Taiwan” from next month. The Taiwan Good Rice Association wrote on Facebook on Friday that it was informed on April 28 via a teleconference call of the change, which was made because the platform wanted to operate in China. Taiwan Good Rice is to terminate all cooperative relationships with GlobalGiving in response to the platform’s “unilateral and non-negotiable” decision to remove references to Taiwan, the NGO said. “Taiwan is in the official name of Taiwan Good Rice Association and the
HEAVY WEATHER: Typhoon Jangmi is due to crash straight into the Ryukyus as airlines look to shift flights to larger aircraft or cancel flights to Okinawa entirely Taiwan’s international air carriers announced flight adjustments over the weekend as Typhoon Jangmi is forecast to hit the Ryukyu Islands today and tomorrow. The Central Weather Administration (CWA) upgraded Jangmi from a tropical storm to a typhoon at 8am yesterday, with the eye located 580km south of Naha city. It was moving north at 19kph. Today, China Airlines’ CI-120, CI-121, CI-122 and CI-123 flights between Taoyuan and Naha, Okinawa, have been canceled as well as CI-132 and CI-133 between Kaohsiung and Naha. EVA Air’s BR-112, BR-113, BR-186 and BR-185 flights between Taoyuan and Naha are also canceled. Low-cost carrier Tigerair Taiwan canceled IT-230,
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) yesterday briefed her party’s Central Standing Committee regarding her scheduled visit to the US between Monday next week and June 16, saying that her purpose would be to persuade the US that the Republic of China (ROC) Constitution was a “one China” constitution that would foster stable and peaceful cross-strait relations. The ROC Constitution is the most important defense for all Taiwanese citizens, as it upholds our democracy and has contributed to our robust economy, which aligns with international and US interests, she said. “We would not be troublemakers and drag the US under,”
RSS