There is likely to be a new “crisis in relations” between Taiwan and China in the coming months, said Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu.
In a study published in the US journal National Interest, Roy urged Washington to support Taiwan.
He said that coercion from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) against democratic Taiwan would challenge US reliability.
“Taiwan should be considered a crucial place to make a stand, not a liability to be abandoned in a strategic retreat to more defensible ground,” Roy wrote.
He said that if Taiwan chooses to resist pressure to unify with China, Washington should support it with “robust arms sales.”
Roy predicted a near-term crisis that would pose “acute difficulties” for the US.
“Abandoning Taiwan to involuntary absorption, however, would signal to the region the end of Pax Americana,” he said.
The Democratic Progressive Party stands a good chance of capturing the presidency next year, Roy said.
“Beijing would see such a government as separatist, instantly intensifying Chinese fears that Taiwan is slipping away and that dramatic PRC counteraction is necessary,” he said.
He said that Chinese leadership under President Xi Jinping (習近平) now appears less constrained than before by the need to appear accommodating.
“Failing to deliver on Taiwan could create a vulnerability for Xi that his enemies would be quick to exploit,” Roy said.
This could impel Xi to demand that Taipei open political negotiations and that such a demand could lead to a quick rebuff, humiliation and a new Taiwan Strait crisis, he said.
Roy said that as difficult as defending Taiwan from Chinese attack would be, shrinking from Taiwan’s defense would seriously endanger the US’ agenda in the Asia-Pacific region.
“Conceding Taiwan to a Chinese sphere of influence would not buy peace with China,” he said.
“The Chinese would interpret such an American action as the beginning of a withdrawal of the US from the Asia-Pacific region and would expect American resistance in other areas of US-China disagreement to diminish accordingly,” he said.
Roy added that Beijing’s rise to great power status is still uncertain, and it faces immense challenges including a rapidly aging society, severe environmental pollution and the need for fundamental and painful economic reforms.
With this in the background, the military conquest of Taiwan is an extremely unattractive option.
There is a “considerable risk” the operation would fail to put Chinese troops in control of key Taiwanese cities, would disrupt the Chinese economy and would cause domestic social and political turmoil, he wrote.
“If the Chinese believe the US would fight for Taiwan even at the risk of losing a couple of US warships, the prospect of a war might deter the Chinese leadership from opting for a military attack on Taiwan,” he said.
“Some analysts argue that a tougher US policy toward China is warranted. If so, continuing and even upgrading US support for Taiwan is an appropriate response,” he said.
EXCUSES: Beijing is using government and research vessels as a pretext to harass the nation and enter its EEZ, and engage in ‘hegemonic expansion,’ the coast guard said The Coast Guard Administration yesterday said it drove away Chinese oceanographic research vessel Xiang Yang Hong 22 (向陽紅33) from restricted waters after warning it that it was in Taiwan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The Chinese vessel entered restricted waters off the coast of Yilan County’s Suao (蘇澳) at 11:35pm on Thursday, the coast guard said, adding that it dispatched the Lanyu patrol vessel and the boat PP-10077 to shadow the Chinese ship and issue radio warnings ordering it to leave. China has no sovereignty over waters off Taiwan’s east coast, Lanyu’s crew told Xiang Yang Hong 22 over the radio, and demanded
BAIT AND SWITCH: Allowing KMT-run counties to sell to China while the threat of abrupt cancelations hangs overhead is another form of coercion, officials said Beijing is using agricultural purchase offers announced during the Straits Forum to deepen Taiwan’s dependence on the Chinese market, a Taiwanese official said yesterday as they criticized the Taitung County commissioner’s participation in the initiative. During the Straits Forum held in Xiamen on Saturday, Chinese officials announced a sales and purchase agreement for agricultural products from some counties led by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). Taitung County Commissioner Yao Ching-ling (饒慶鈴), who was barred from attending the event in person by the Mainland Affairs Council, participated via video. Under the agreement, China would purchase atemoyas, pomeloes, tea and grouper harvested in Taitung,
SHIFTING FIRE: While the tempo of purely military exercises around Taiwan has gone down somewhat, Beijing is working to isolate Lai diplomatically from support abroad Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is shifting tactics in his campaign to pressure Taiwan, ramping up diplomatic isolation of the nation while dialing down provocative displays of military aggression. Taiwan recorded a daily average of five Chinese military aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait’s buffer line with China through May this year — half the number logged in the same period last year. In March, Beijing did not send a single fighter jet near Taiwan for seven days, the longest absence on record outside of typhoon season. In comparison, China sent 153 planes near Taiwan during one day at its peak in
Four Taiwanese universities have been ranked among the world's top 200 institutions in the Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) World University Rankings for next year, the highest Taiwan has ever placed in the category, with National Taiwan University (NTU) achieving its best performance at 54th globally and 17th in Asia. The four Taiwanese institutions in the global top 200 are NTU (54th), National Tsing Hua University (142nd), National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University (177th) and National Cheng Kung University (191st), the rankings showed. All four universities achieved their highest-ever global rankings this year, QS data showed. National Cheng Kung University entered the top 200 for
RSS