Chinese military expansion means that the US would have to fight “harder, quicker, nastier, deeper and longer” to protect Taiwan, a new analysis said, raising the specter that such a conflict could quickly go nuclear.
Written by Center for a New American Security fellow Elbridge Colby — a former US government defense and intelligence official — the analysis was published in National Interest magazine.
“In the past, most defense analysts and planners envisioned a Sino-American conflict in maritime Asia starting and remaining a conventional fight,” Colby wrote.
The US was seen as able to handle any Chinese attempts at power projection solely by relying on conventional forces, he said.
“In practical terms, the US would have been able to defeat Chinese attacks on Taiwan with relatively limited means and on Washington’s terms,” Colby added.
“Nuclear weapons, if they were to become involved, were seen as most likely to be introduced in limited numbers by the Chinese in a desperate attempt to stave off defeat in a Taiwan contingency, a defeat that might jeopardize the legitimacy of the Communist regime,” he wrote.
However, if China had the upper hand in a battle over Taiwan and the US still wanted to deter or defeat an attempted invasion of the nation, the US would need to be willing to hit targets deeper in China than had been envisioned before, he added.
They would have to strike sooner and expand the war considerably beyond Taiwan’s immediate environs to compel Beijing to back away, Colby said.
Such a scenario could lead to the use of nuclear weapons at a time when China’s nuclear arsenal is becoming larger and more sophisticated, he said.
Instead of only having the option of striking at a major US or Japanese city, China would increasingly gain the ability to target military facilities or forces in the region, Colby said.
“This ability to use nuclear weapons in more limited and tailored ways will make China’s threats — explicit or implicit — to use nuclear forces more credible,” he wrote.
Beijing might gain superiority in terms of conventional arms in the region and be able to block US efforts designed to defend Taiwan, Colby said.
As China grows more assertive, Asian nations traditionally allied to Washington “may ultimately see getting their own nuclear weapons as essential to deterring China’s exploitation of its growing strength,” he said.
Colby said this would almost certainly be the case if these nations viewed a weaker US as lacking the resolve or the ability to use its nuclear weapons.
“South Korea, Japan, Australia and Taiwan have seriously contemplated pursuing their own nuclear arsenals in the past and might do so again,” Colby wrote.
The more threatening Beijing appears, the less likely it is that the nuclear order of the Asia-Pacific will endure, Colby said.
Beijing could eventually see a full amphibious invasion of Taiwan as the only "prudent" way to bring about unification, the US Department of Defense said in a newly released annual report to Congress. The Pentagon's "Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2025," was in many ways similar to last year’s report but reorganized the analysis of the options China has to take over Taiwan. Generally, according to the report, Chinese leaders view the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) capabilities for a Taiwan campaign as improving, but they remain uncertain about its readiness to successfully seize
HORROR STORIES: One victim recounted not realizing they had been stabbed and seeing people bleeding, while another recalled breaking down in tears after fleeing A man on Friday died after he tried to fight the knife-wielding suspect who went on a stabbing spree near two of Taipei’s busiest metro stations, Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) said. The 57-year-old man, identified by his family name, Yu (余), encountered the suspect at Exit M7 of Taipei Main Station and immediately tried to stop him, but was fatally wounded and later died, Chiang said, calling the incident “heartbreaking.” Yu’s family would receive at least NT$5 million (US$158,584) in compensation through the Taipei Rapid Transit Corp’s (TRTC) insurance coverage, he said after convening an emergency security response meeting yesterday morning. National
Taiwan has overtaken South Korea this year in per capita income for the first time in 23 years, IMF data showed. Per capita income is a nation’s GDP divided by the total population, used to compare average wealth levels across countries. Taiwan also beat Japan this year on per capita income, after surpassing it for the first time last year, US magazine Newsweek reported yesterday. Across Asia, Taiwan ranked fourth for per capita income at US$37,827 this year due to sustained economic growth, the report said. In the top three spots were Singapore, Macau and Hong Kong, it said. South
PLANNED: The suspect visited the crime scene before the killings, seeking information on how to access the roof, and had extensively researched a 2014 stabbing incident The suspect in a stabbing attack that killed three people and injured 11 in Taipei on Friday had planned the assault and set fires at other locations earlier in the day, law enforcement officials said yesterday. National Police Agency (NPA) Director-General Chang Jung-hsin (張榮興) said the suspect, a 27-year-old man named Chang Wen (張文), began the attacks at 3:40pm, first setting off smoke bombs on a road, damaging cars and motorbikes. Earlier, Chang Wen set fire to a rental room where he was staying on Gongyuan Road in Zhongzheng District (中正), Chang Jung-hsin said. The suspect later threw smoke grenades near two exits
RSS