A new study by researchers at the US National Defense University argues that Washington should defend Taiwan’s sea and air space and all of the first island chain nations in the case of a clash with China.
The strategy, known as “Offshore Control,” is described as an effective and affordable approach to a conventional conflict with China.
Published this week in National Interest magazine, it is written by distinguished research fellow T.X. Hammes and director of the Institute for National Strategic Studies R.D. Hooker.
The plan can assure US allies that Washington has the “will and capability” to prevail in a military confrontation and that their goal is to convince China that great-power rivalry is a poor choice, they say.
“Offshore Control establishes concentric rings that deny China the use of the sea inside the first island chain, defend the sea and air space of the first island chain nations, and dominate the air and maritime space outside the island chain,” the study says.
“Offshore Control does not strike into China but takes advantage of geography to block China’s key imports and exports and thus severely weaken its economy,” it says.
The study emphasizes that no kinetic operations would penetrate Chinese airspace and would thus reduce the possibility of nuclear escalation and make it easier to end the conflict.
This approach would exploit China’s military weaknesses, which increase exponentially beyond the first island chair that runs through the Japanese Archipelago, the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, the northern Philippines and Borneo to the Malay Peninsula, the study says.
“Allied naval and air forces attempting to operate near or on the Chinese territory face daunting odds,” it says.
“In contrast, allied forces fighting as part of an integrated air-sea-land defense of the first island chain gain major tactical advantages over Chinese forces,” it says. “Outside that arc, Chinese capabilities dwindle markedly.”
While the US could not stop all sea traffic in the zone, it could prevent the passage of large cargo ships and large tankers, severely disrupting China’s economy, according to the study.
As an integral part of denial, any Chinese military assets outside the Chinese 19km limit would be subject to attack.
“Numerous small islands from Japan to Taiwan to Luzon and on to the Straits of Malacca provide dispersed land-basing options for air and sea defense of the apparent gaps in the first island chain,” the study says.
“Since Offshore Control will rely heavily on land-based air and sea defenses, to include mine and countermine capability, we can encourage potential partners to invest in these capabilities and exercise together regularly in peacetime,” it says.
Hammes and Hooker said that the US would not request Taiwan or other nations to allow the use of their bases to attack China.
“The strategy will only ask nations to allow the presence of US defensive systems to help defend that nation’s air, sea and land space,” the study says.
“While such a concentric blockade campaign will require a layered effort from the straits to China’s coast, it will mostly be fought at a great distance from China,” the study says. “The only ways for China to break the blockade are to build a global sea-control navy or develop alternative land routes.”
“A sea-control navy will require investing hundred of billions of dollars over decades,” it says. “Alternative overland routes simply cannot move the 9.74 billion tons [8.8 billion metric tonnes] of goods China exported by sea in 2012.”
The authors believe a major conflict with China is “highly unlikely,” but if it should happen they say that the concept of “Air-Sea Battle” which has been strongly promoted would be both provocative and ineffective.
Under the “Air-Sea Battle” plan, US forces would attack Chinese surveillance systems and China’s integrated air defense system and bomb Chinese land-based ballistic and antiship missile systems.
Replacing the “Air-Sea Battle” plan with “Offshore Control” might convince Beijing that great-power cooperation can bring maximum benefit to China, the US and the rest of the world, the study says.
An increase in Taiwanese boats using China-made automatic identification systems (AIS) could confuse coast guards patrolling waters off Taiwan’s southwest coast and become a loophole in the national security system, sources familiar with the matter said yesterday. Taiwan ADIZ, a Facebook page created by enthusiasts who monitor Chinese military activities in airspace and waters off Taiwan’s southwest coast, on Saturday identified what seemed to be a Chinese cargo container ship near Penghu County. The Coast Guard Administration went to the location after receiving the tip and found that it was a Taiwanese yacht, which had a Chinese AIS installed. Similar instances had also
GOOD DIPLOMACY: The KMT has maintained close contact with representative offices in Taiwan and had extended an invitation to Russia as well, the KMT said The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) would “appropriately handle” the fallout from an invitation it had extended to Russia’s representative to Taipei to attend its international banquet last month, KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) said yesterday. US and EU representatives in Taiwan boycotted the event, and only later agreed to attend after the KMT rescinded its invitation to the Russian representative. The KMT has maintained long-term close contact with all representative offices and embassies in Taiwan, and had extended the invitation as a practice of good diplomacy, Chu said. “Some EU countries have expressed their opinions of Russia, and the KMT respects that,” he
VIGILANCE: The military is paying close attention to actions that might damage peace and stability in the region, the deputy minister of national defense said The People’s Republic of China (PRC) might consider initiating a hack on Taiwanese networks on May 20, the day of the inauguration ceremony of president-elect William Lai (賴清德), sources familiar with cross-strait issues said. While US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s statement of the US expectation “that all sides will conduct themselves with restraint and prudence in the period ahead” would prevent military actions by China, Beijing could still try to sabotage Taiwan’s inauguration ceremony, the source said. China might gain access to the video screens outside of the Presidential Office Building and display embarrassing messages from Beijing, such as congratulating Lai
Four China Coast Guard ships briefly sailed through prohibited waters near Kinmen County, Taipei said, urging Beijing to stop actions that endanger navigation safety. The Chinese ships entered waters south of Kinmen, 5km from the Chinese city of Xiamen, at about 3:30pm on Monday, the Coast Guard Administration said in a statement later the same day. The ships “sailed out of our prohibited and restricted waters” about an hour later, the agency said, urging Beijing to immediately stop “behavior that endangers navigation safety.” Ministry of National Defense spokesman Sun Li-fang (孫立方) yesterday told reporters that Taiwan would boost support to the Coast Guard